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Central banks and inflation are the two main actors in a play not seen in decades. After many unexpected twists and turns, inflation has continued to be a dominant theme, fueled by tight labor markets, supply chain dynamics, and geopolitical tensions. In the US, the Fed has credibly embarked on policy tightening to rein in price pressures. Elsewhere, other major central banks also stand ready to "catch" inflation, though with different policy paths relative to the US.
Inflation has remained elevated across many of the major developed markets suggesting that central bank policy could be more hawkish than expected in the near term. The share of global central banks that are currently raising their respective interest rates is at a record high; nearly 80% of major central banks are hiking. This proportion could remain elevated for an extended period if inflation prints continue to be above respective targets.
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
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