The current health crisis might put things into perspective by giving us a glimpse of how the ‘far-off-future’ might actually look. We all know that history doesn’t repeat itself, but COVID-19 and Climate Change definitely rhyme: environmentally driven, ignorant of borders, catastrophic economic as well as social implications, and a calling for a coordinated policy response. The next months will show if this epiphany can move policymakers to consider tomorrow’s crisis while combating today’s.
Unprecedented times once more
While every crisis is unique, the outbreak of COVID-19 is not the first great global crisis and will certainly not be the last. As with previous episodes of major economic downturns, we can observe a significant drop in energy demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that total energy demand might decline by ~6% in 2020.1 This is no small number. In fact, this represents the single biggest drop in energy demand in recorded history, equivalent to the total annual demand of Germany, France, Italy, and the UK combined. A drop of this magnitude effectively annuls the last 5 years of demand growth.
The inverse relationship between economic disaster and our climate (Exhibit 1) may give an indication of what’s to come. In short, the years following a crisis, i.e. the recovery cycle, matter too. Energy demand tends to return with a vengeance. While a state of economic emergency definitely puts annual emissions growth on hiatus, it does not seem to meaningfully impede the structural upwards trend.