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US equities were volatile last week, as evidenced by the 2.86% increase in the VIX. This volatility was driven by concerns regarding the impact of rising rates on the banking sector and exacerbated by extremely low liquidity in the marketplace. Ultimately, support from the FDIC and stabilization efforts from the nation’s largest banks helped ease concerns about systemic risks, driving the S&P 500 1.47% higher. In Europe, the STOXX 600 and FTSE 100 ended the week lower –3.76% and –5.20%, respectively, driven by similar liquidity and contagion worries with a European banking giant. Read More
Oil prices fell to a 15-month low last week, driven by recessionary concerns. Although the decrease was slightly offset by OPEC+ commitments to production cuts, WTI and Brent crude closed lower at $66.74 and $72.97/bbl, respectively. Gold prices ended the week higher, closing at $1990.20/troy oz, as stress in the banking system drove a flight to safety. Read More
Global sovereign yields fell last week, continuing the precipitous decline from the week prior. The 2-Year and 10-Year US Treasury yields finished the week at 3.84% and 3.39%, respectively, with the 2-Year yield experiencing its largest 5-day decline ending mid-week since 1987. Elsewhere, the 10-Year German Bund yield ended last week at 2.11% and had its largest single day fall since 2011 on the back of fears stemming from the European banking sector. Read More
The US dollar depreciated slightly against a basket of major currencies last week as risk sentiment improved on the back of large US banks moving to ease stress in the financial system. As a result, the US dollar index ended the week down –0.41%. Meanwhile, the euro and pound sterling ended last week at $1.0682 and $1.2198, respectively. Read More
In the US, February core CPI rose slightly above consensus expectations to 0.45% MoM, driven by increases in airfares, car insurance, and personal care. The year-over-year headline rate fell to 6.0%, down by one-third from its peak of 9.1% last year. Read More
US retail sales fell –0.4% MoM in February, driven by a decline in auto sales and gasoline station sales. Similarly, the producer price index decreased by –0.1% in February, below consensus expectations, as a result of lower energy and food prices. In addition, the Philly Fed manufacturing index increased by less than expected, as new orders, shipments, and employment declined, reflecting contracting activity. Read More
Initial jobless claims fell by 20k to 192k in the week ending March 11, below consensus expectations for a smaller decline. The four-week moving average of claims fell by 1k to 196k. Read More
In Europe, the ECB raised the deposit rate by 50 bps to 3.0%, despite rising uncertainty around financial stability. The Governing Council signaled that future policy decisions will be data dependent and indicated that it closely monitors market tensions. GIR now expects a 25 bps hike in May (vs 50 bps previously) and a 25 bps hike in June (unchanged) for a terminal rate of 3.5% (vs 3.75%). Across the Channel, UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced his Spring Budget which indicated a meaningful fiscal expansion. Notable announcements were the extension of the current Energy Price Guarantee cap until June and a package aimed at supporting labor supply. In China, the PBOC reported it would cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 25 bps for most financial institutions, effective March 27th. In our view, this decision is intended to boost market confidence and to send a “pro-growth” signal. Read More
For US Fixed Income, Government, Corporate, and High Yield refer to the Bloomberg US Treasury, the Bloomberg US Corporate Credit, and the Bloomberg US High Yield indices, respectively. For European Fixed Income, Government, Corporate, and High Yield refer to the Bloomberg Euro Treasury Index, the Bloomberg Euro Corporate Index, and the Bloomberg Euro High Yield Index, respectively. Short, Intermediate, and Long refer to the Short, Intermediate, and Long segments of their respective curves. Quality returns refers to the credit quality of asset classes ranging from Government, highest quality, to High Yield, lowest quality. Since August 24, 2016, the Barclays indices are co-branded “Bloomberg Barclays indices”.
Germany PPI MoM (Cons: –0.5%, Prior: –1.0%)
FOMC Meeting
UK CPI YoY (Cons: 9.8%, Prior: 10.1%)
UK PPI MoM (Cons: 0.2%, Prior: -0.1%)
BoE Meeting
US New Home Sales (Cons: 648k, Prior: 670k)
UK Core Retail Sales YoY (Cons: –5.0%, Prior: –5.3%)
US Manufacturing PMI (Cons: 47.6, Prior: 47.3)
US Services PMI (Cons: 50.8, Prior: 50.6)
“FOMC” refers to the Federal Open Market Committee. “BoE” refers to the Bank of England. “Germany PPI MoM” refers to Germany’s Producer Price Index, month-over-month. “UK CPI YoY” refers to the United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index, year-over-year. “UK PPI MoM” refers to the United Kingdom’s Producer Price Index, month-over-month. “US Services PMI” refers to the Markit US Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. “US Manuf. PMI” refers to the Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index.
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