Four charts outline key observations and things investors should watch out for in the US, Europe, Japan and China.
The saying ‘sell in May and go away’ refuses itself to go away.
The US is shedding excess capacity at a faster rate than most of its developed world peers, which supports our outlook for inflation to strengthen and sharpens our focus on the risk of rates volatility.
Time-series and cross-sectional analysis support our expectation for US wage growth to pick up in the near future.
We believe the balance of secular drivers over the next several years is inflationary, as a range of factors that have suppressed prices over the past decade are reaching inflection points.
The weak transmission of growth to inflation in the developed world creates challenges for policymakers, raising the risks of a policy misstep.
We believe a portion of the BBB-rated market with US investment grade corporate credit bears monitoring, particularly as we progress through the elongated cycle. There is scope for downgrade activity to pick-up as we shift from a macro backdrop of above-trend growth and contained inflation to moderating growth and rising inflation.
The US midterm elections on November 6th resulted in a divided government—the widely expected outcome—with the Democratic Party gaining control of the House while the Republican Party maintained their majority in the Senate. We believe the markets are largely priced for this outcome and the election outcome is likely to have a limited effect on market volatility.
The ten key thoughts on the recent selloff, many of which discuss factors that extend beyond a single day’s move.
Stay connected on the latest market developments and investment themes
Our portfolio manager discusses what factors in the US economy may cause inflation to accelerate
Revolutionary technology may benefit financial services and supply chain
Trade tensions may affect China far more than the US
Access more insights from across GSAM
Select your role below for a targeted experience.