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    GSAM Insights

    NAVIGATING ASIA HIGH YIELD

    Navigating Fixed Income

    September 21, 2022  |  5 Minute Read

    A Tale of Two

    The Asia High Yield (HY) market has participated in the risk asset selloff this year. Like other asset classes, it has faced headwinds from tighter financial conditions, cost-of-living pressures, and geopolitical volatility. However, Asia HY has faced an added challenge over the past year: China’s hard-hit property sector.1

     

    This has created a tale of two for performance in the asset class—one that includes China and one that does not. The Asia HY market has delivered a total return of -21% year-to-date (YTD), the second weakest performance since 2001, ranking only behind the 2008-09 global financial crisis. Excluding China, of which a large portion is the challenged property sector, total returns are less weak at approximately -9.6%.2

     

     

    Exhibit 1: Defaults in Asia HY Largely Stem From China Property

     

    Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, ICE BofAML. As of June 2022. Numbers in brackets denote total. Data reflects defaults (non-payment or cross-default), distressed exchanges or distress buy-backs.

     

     

    Measured Easing to Contain Systemic Risk 

    Earlier this summer, volatility returned to the China Property HY market as homebuyers refused to make mortgage payments on delayed property developments. Policymakers stepped in with various measures, including special loans from policy banks. More recently, China Property HY has rebounded on news that large private property developers were preparing to issue Renminbi-denominated corporate bonds with guarantees provided by China Bond Insurance Company. This is an important step to stabilize sentiment, ease funding stresses and contain systemic risk. However, there are two key caveats. First, the provision of guarantees for onshore bond issuance is unlikely to extend to weaker property developers. The risk of further defaults therefore remains high. Second, the measures are unlikely to reflate the property sector. 

     

    Notwithstanding our expectation for further defaults and credit stresses to unfold in the remainder of the year, we do not expect systemic stress to emerge for two key reasons. First, policymakers have demonstrated their resolve to step in with selective and measured easing actions. Second, offshore bond funding accounts for only around 4% of China property developer total borrowing, with most sourced from onshore loans alongside some funding via the Renminbi bond market and shadow banking channels.3

     

    That said, we think a sustained turnaround in the China Property HY market is unlikely until there is evidence of stabilization in China’s physical property market. Data on this front remains elusive. Property-related activity weakened in July from June despite more housing policy easing, suggesting the sector is not out of the woods.

     

    This means the near-term outlook for China Property HY will remain challenging. But with challenges come opportunities. As long-term investors seeking to deliver income and capital appreciation for our clients, we believe the current volatility and yields on offer for China Property HY—which currently stand at 42.7%4 —offers attractive investment potential. Put another way, we think there is an opportunity to generate attractive total returns by navigating property sector deleveraging through security selection. We hold selective exposure to the China Property HY market, with a bias for shorter-duration bonds and higher quality developers that may benefit from further policy easing. More broadly, we believe diversification is critical to help mitigate downside risks. 

     

    Branching Beyond China Property HY

    Given the long road ahead for deleveraging in the China Property HY segment and the potential for more defaults to emerge, we also seek to identify attractive investment opportunities in other segments of the Asia HY universe. Most companies in the investment universe publish financial statements on an annual basis. The most recent filings show that credit fundamentals for the Asia HY market excluding China are healthy. Net leverage has returned to low levels of the past decade (Exhibit 2), interest coverage ratios have risen (Exhibit 3) and a measure of operating profit as a proportion of revenues—earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margins—stands at 29%, the highest level in a decade.5

     

     

    Exhibit 2: Debt Burdens Have Moderated

     

    Source: ICE-BAML, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, as of December 31, 2021.

     

    Exhibit 3: Debt Servicing Capacity Is Decent

     

    Source: ICE-BAML, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, as of December 31, 2021.

     

     

    Asia HY currently yields 16.1%—an attractive premium over other fixed income spread sectors. We recognise that this high yield is in part driven by China HY and in particular China Property HY which yield 28.3% and 43.7%, respectively. However, we also believe the asset class provides an attractive yield for a diverse opportunity set that exhibits robust fundamentals beyond China Property (Exhibit 4). Indeed, Asia HY excluding China offers a still healthy yield of 10.7%.

     

     

    Exhibit 4: The Asia HY Opportunity Set is More than China Property

     

    Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, ICE-BAML. Benchmark is represented by the ACCH-ICE BofA Asian Dollar High Yield Corporate & Issuer Constrained Index. As of August 2022.

     

    Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, ICE-BAML. Benchmark is represented by the ACCH-ICE BofA Asian Dollar High Yield Corporate & Issuer Constrained Index. As of August 2022.

     

     

    Under the hood, we see investment potential in issuers that stand to benefit from efforts to decarbonize the global economy. For example, we are overweight Indian Renewable HY issuers that provide attractive carry. We also find opportunities in non-cyclical sectors such as Technology, Media, and Telecommunications, where we think bonds are undervalued despite issuer resilience to the complex macro backdrop. This includes a Philippine telecommunications company that has a large market share and benefits from favourable socioeconomic trends such as rising demand from young consumers. Similarly, we are overweight a Hong Kong telecommunications issuer whose balance sheet fundamentals are underpinned by dominant market share, stable demand, and robust cash flows. 

     

    Like other risk assets, the focus into year-end is on whether central banks can tame inflation without triggering a global recession. China growth challenges due to zero-Covid policies also remain in focus. In an environment of high real-time uncertainty and data dependence, we remain focused on sourcing attractive carry and long-term opportunities that can generate both sustainable economic growth and investment returns. 

     

     
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    Navigating Fixed Income: September 2022

     

     

     

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    1 China Property HY was the largest segment within Asia HY prior to the defaults that have occurred over the past 12 months.

    2 ICE BofAML, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Macrobond. As of August 31, 2022. Based on the ICE BofA Asian Dollar HY Corp Sector & Issuer Constrained Index (USD, Total Return). 

    3 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research China Credit Conundrum as of  June 1, 2022. Based on funding as of end-2021. This report is produced and distributed by the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs, and is not a product of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of Goldman Sachs Asset Management or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Please see additional disclosures at the bottom of this page.

    4 ICE BofAML, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Macrobond. As of August 31, 2022. Based on the ICE BofA Asian Dollar HY Corp Sector & Issuer Constrained Index effective yield excluding cash.

    5 ICE-BAML, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, as of December 31, 2021. 

     

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    Views and opinions are current as of August 24, 2022 and may be subject to change, they should not be construed as investment advice.

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