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    GSAM Insights

    NAVIGATING REAL-TIME UNCERTAINTY

    Navigating Fixed Income

    August 29, 2022  |  7 Minute Read

     

    Every cycle is unique and the current one is no exception. Rather, today’s environment is exceptional in that the US has experienced its fastest dose of monetary tightening since the early 1980s, Europe is facing an energy supply crisis and China is pursuing zero-Covid policies. In other words, 57% of global GDP faces significant headwinds.1

     

    At the same time, surging inflation—a function of pandemic and war supply disruptions as well as policy-driven demand—has led central banks to expeditiously raise rates. Monetary policy affects the economy through broader financial conditions which have tightened in all major economies year-to-date—with the exception of Japan—implying weaker growth ahead (see Exhibit 1). In the US, financial markets expect a slower pace of tightening going forward. After all, the impact of rate hikes is felt with a lag and economic data—that can be subject to revisions—are released with a further delay.

     

     

    Exhibit 1: Living through tightening financial conditions

    A 100 basis points of tightening lowers GDP growth in G10 economies by ~1% on average after four quarters2
    Household Net Worth Near All-Time Highs

    Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. As of August 21, 2022.

     

    The investment environment is also subject to inflection points in the macroeconomic, geopolitical and corporate landscape as discussed in the summer edition of Goldman Sachs Asset Management Perspectives. But not only is the longer term outlook uncertain, it is also difficult to assess current economic conditions in the post-pandemic era as data is still clouded by pandemic and war distortions. This real-time uncertainty extends to central bank actions given policymakers have shelved forward guidance in favour of data-dependence. Consequently, “all options are on the table” at upcoming meetings, as recently indicated by the Bank of England.

     

    Handle Data with Care

    The current environment requires us to handle any one data point—and the market response—with care. This summer has seen outsized moves in rate markets on downside and upside surprises in US and UK inflation, respectively. Risk assets have also rebounded as expectations for policy overtightening and a hard landing have been tempered by resilient activity and labour market data. The moves have been supportive of our fixed income exposures, including our overweight to corporate credit, bank loans and agency mortgage-backed securities.

     

    As we move into the autumn, we think the balance of risks is tilted towards renewed tightening in financial conditions, in light of still-high inflation and upside risks from energy, particularly in Europe. Consequently, the recent relaxation in risk assets seems vulnerable to a partial reversal. We have therefore used recent strength to dial down our exposure to credit.

     

    Keeping Up with The Carry

    Notwithstanding the unclear macro environment, we think there is a high bar to trim exposure to credit further given carry and roll3 is the dominant driver of excess returns in fixed income portfolios over time.4 For example, US investment grade corporate credit spreads would have to widen an additional 25 basis points to offset expected returns from carry and roll over the next year—an unlikely outturn in our view given the degree of repricing that has already occurred in response to the hawkish monetary policy backdrop.5 Moreover, the macro mix of decelerating growth, high inflation and monetary tightening has increased dispersion in corporate bond returns, ultimately widening our scope to generate alpha through security selection.

     

    In multi-sector portfolios, we have rotated up the ratings spectrum, reflecting a slight preference for investment grade over high yield bonds given decelerating growth. For similar reasons, we favour defensive sectors over cyclical ones. Regionally, we are cautious on European credit given macro headwinds from the energy crisis and a departure from ultra-easy ECB policies. Within investment grade credit, we are overweight BBB-rated bonds as conservative capital management among issuers in this rating cohort will likely limit downgrades into the high yield market. More broadly, we think solid balance sheet positions will enable companies to withstand the current macro headwinds, keeping downgrade and default activity in check. That said, we remain watchful of the potential for idiosyncratic downside credit events given the combination of headwinds from cost inflation, supply chain issues, slowing growth and monetary tightening.

     

    Balancing Act

    The balance properties of rates were challenged in the first half of this year due to unforeseen shocks and an underestimation of the strength in underlying inflation by some investors, including ourselves, and policymakers. The resultant market volatility created a positive correlation between rates and credit—an uncommon phenomenon over longer time horizons (see Exhibit 2)—which reinforced performance weakness. Investing amid elevated real-time uncertainty requires us to exercise humility and be agile in our views. In light of performance weakness, we scaled down the extent to which we combined spread sector exposures with rates in multi-sector fixed income portfolios.

     

    However, in the longer term, we think the balance properties of rates remain intact and we expect the negative correlation between rates and credit to reassert itself as market focus rotates from policy tightening towards decelerating growth. In fact, higher yields improve scope for rates to provide balance during risk-off market environments.

     

     

    Exhibit 2: The negative correlation between credit and rates can protect balanced portfolios

     
    Household Net Worth Near All-Time Highs

    Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Macrobond, Bloomberg. Chart reflects 1-year rolling correlation between 1-month changes in US Treasury yields and US investment grade (IG) spreads. As of August 23, 2022. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary.

     

    It Takes Time, Not Timing, to Generate Sustainable Returns

    Tracking performance in real time can detract from long term goals. We seek to allocate our clients capital to investment opportunities that meet their investment objectives—such as income, capital preservation or capital appreciation—within a set of risk constraints. This takes time in the market, not market timing to achieve.

     

    In times of uncertainty, we believe it is important to stay focused on structural and thematic investment opportunities that can help to generate both sustainable economic growth and investment returns. For example, fixed income investors can support the energy transition by investing in green bonds that are issued by companies and governments to finance environmentally-friendly projects, assets or activities. The latest US fiscal package, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), includes $370 billion in energy and climate incentives, more spending in this area than any other single piece of legislation. For renewables companies considering capital expenditures, this package provides greater policy certainty for longer periods. We also see investment potential in companies installing electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure needed to support widespread adoption of EVs and the electrification of the Transport sector. The US has just 6,000 fast charging EV stations compared with 150,000 fuel stations6, implying significant growth runway for companies in this space. Meanwhile, the rising share of modern day life—from shopping to banking and tracking steps to socialising—powered by smartphones creates opportunities in corporate bonds issued by data providers such as Communications companies.

     

     

     

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    1 Source: IMF World Economic Indicators. Based on nominal GDP in 2021.

    2 Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research – Global Economics Comment (August 12, 2022) - this report is produced and distributed by the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs, and is not a product of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of Goldman Sachs Asset Management or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Please see additional disclosures at the back of this report.

    3 Carry reflects an assets expected total return (net of financing costs) beyond price appreciation. It is estimated by the yield differential (or ‘spread’) between a fixed income sector and a risk-free asset (typically a relevant sovereign bond yield). Roll refers to a change in spread from “rolling down” a credit curve over time.

    4 Our Cross Sector asset allocation process seeks to construct fixed income portfolios that optimize carry and roll over a market cycle. Tactically, we can improve risk-adjusted return potential through active issuer and security selection. Specifically, we assess the interplay between fundamentals, valuations and technical factors to express views across various dimensions such as region, ratings, maturity buckets and industries. 

    5 Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Bloomberg.US investment grade corporate credit spreads have widened ~50bps year-to-date. As of August 23, 2022.

    6 Source: MIT Technology Review (June 28, 2022). There are around 48,000 EV stations but only 6,000 are fast charging stations.

    Abbreviations

    Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

    European Central Bank (ECB)

    Disclosures

    Views and opinions are current as of August 24, 2022 and may be subject to change, they should not be construed as investment advice.

    Views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation by Goldman Sachs Asset Management to buy, sell, or hold any security.

    Individual portfolio management teams for Goldman Sachs Asset Management may have views and opinions and/or make investment decisions that, in certain instances, may not always be consistent with the views and opinions expressed herein.

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    Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments will fluctuate and can go down as well as up. A loss of principal may occur.

    High-yield, lower-rated securities involve greater price volatility and present greater credit risks than higher-rated fixed income securities.

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    Index Benchmarks

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    Date of first use: August 29, 2022  289160-OTU-1658239. 

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