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    All Insights Investment Ideas 2023 - Coming Up For Air

    Inflation: Finally Falling?

    INFLATION: FINALLY FALLING?

    January 19, 2023  |  4 Minute Read

     

    Inflation turned into a persistent, double-digit problem in 2022 as prices for everything from gas to groceries and haircuts to hotel stays surged higher. Pandemic-related issues and geopolitical conflict, meanwhile, disrupted the entire global supply chain, adding fuel to the fire. But after a year of aggressive monetary tightening helped to reduce demand, investors are hoping that price pressures will finally start to moderate in 2023 as supply bottlenecks clear. There have been some tentative signs so far. US core inflation decelerated toward the end of last year and euro area headline inflation also registered an unexpected decline in November—the first one in months—though high energy prices remain a risk. The timing and magnitude of improvement across regions is still uncertain. A pressing risk is that tight labor markets fail to relieve pressure on wages and services prices. Fresh supply shocks, particularly for commodities, are also a possibility. And even as the economy rebalances, inflation could settle at higher levels due to structural forces. For example, global trade is becoming less driven by cost and efficiency and more by considerations of national security, supply chain resilience and sustainability. With investors still hovering somewhere between hope and anxiety, we think a focus on durable cash flows remains essential.

     

     

    US Core Inflation: Tentative Signs of Slowing

     

    Source: Macrobond, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. US reflects core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation. As of November, 2022. For illustrative purposes only.

     

     

    Investment Ideas to Consider

     

     

    A Strategic Approach to Real Assets

    Real assets, such as real estate and infrastructure, have historically offered unique attributes—relatively attractive yield and predictable growth, inflation-hedging benefits and lower volatility than broad equities. Pinpointing the most attractive potential opportunities, however, requires a discerning approach, particularly if US recession risk becomes more pronounced and inflation cools more rapidly than expected. But inflationary pressures could remain elevated in the medium term due to deglobalization trends, reshoring supply chains back to developed markets, higher commodity prices and a tighter labor market. Infrastructure assets have benefitted in this environment as their cash flows are typically underpinned by contracts linked to inflation and incumbent asset values increase as land and material costs rise. A focus on secular growth beneficiaries on the right side of disruption may also prove rewarding. For example, idiosyncratic opportunities tied to digital infrastructure (data centers, cloud connectivity), transportation (airports, logistics) and social infrastructure (healthcare, education) offer attractive long-term return potential. In addition, governments are embracing some of the largest infrastructure investments in history, including the bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the US and the EU Green Deal in Europe. Europe is also revamping its industrial and subsidies policy in response to the IRA later this year. All of these will result in substantial fiscal stimulus for infrastructure companies, particularly those tied to clean energy.

     

     

    Innovation at Attractive Prices, But May Require Selectivity

    Few companies were spared in last year’s equity market sell-off, but innovation-oriented equities—companies on the right side of long-term disruptive themes—experienced some of the sharpest drawdowns given their greater sensitivity to rising rates and starting point of elevated valuations. We believe that some of this correction was warranted, but that many share prices have meaningfully over-reacted. In our view, this presents long-term investors with an attractive potential opportunity to invest in some of the fastest growing and most disruptive companies at historically attractive valuations. The inflationary environment encourages businesses to invest in innovative solutions to reduce costs and increase efficiency, in turn serving as a deflationary force, while companies offering innovative products also tend to exert considerable pricing power, making it easier for them to pass on higher input costs to customers. We have started to see the market differentiating between high growth, good quality companies and high growth, low quality companies, and we expect that to continue. We believe disciplined active managers can take advantage of the disconnect we currently see between fundamentals and valuations to invest in some of the most innovative companies—from tech to biotech to clean tech—and position their portfolios for the future.

     

     

    Consider Moving Down in Cap

    Small caps have historically performed well when inflation has been high and falling. There have been 20 years since 1950 when starting inflation began above 3% and ended the year lower. The median small cap return in these years was 21%. Relative to large-cap stocks, the median return was 5%.1 In addition, small caps have historically outperformed following two consecutive quarters of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contraction, a common, though not universal, definition of recession, and in periods after the Federal Reserve (Fed) stops raising rates.2 If inflation continues to ease or if the economy slips into recession, we believe these assets may be able to deliver a repeat performance. Another potential benefit: many small caps offer access to secular growth and innovation. While these long-duration equities suffered in 2022, investors considering changes may now have an opportunity to add exposure at a time when relative valuations are at or near historical lows.

     

     

    Next Theme: Recession Risks

     

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    1 Source: MSCI, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of December 30, 2022

    Glossary

    Energy security is the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price.

    Inflation is the rate at which prices for goods and services rise.

    Risk assets those with a high degree of risk and volatility, such as such as equities, high-yield credit, commodities, and currencies.

    Alpha measures the difference between a portfolio’s actual return and its expected return given its risk level as measured by its beta.

    Beta measures the historical market risk of a portfolio or the volatility of a portfolio relative to an underlying index over a defined historical period of time.

    Growth-oriented refers to areas of the market more likely to realize high earnings growth in the future and likely trade at a higher price relative to their earnings than the broader market.

    Value-oriented refers to areas of the market less likely to realize earnings high growth in the future and likely trade at a lower price relative to their earnings than the broader market.

    The “right side of disruption” refers to companies that in our view are aligned with key secular growth trends and/or are creating new innovative solutions.

    Green economy refers to investments leading the climate transition.

    Equity risk premia refer to the excess return earned by an investor when they invest in the stock market over a risk-free rate.

    TINA stands for There Is No Alternative.

    TARA stand for There Are Reasonable Alternatives.

    Speculative-grade fixed income refers to high yield fixed income.

    Duration measures the sensitivity of the price of a fixed income investment to a change in interest rates.

    Short duration refers to a bond with a small amount of time to maturity.

    Treasuries refers to US Treasury debt obligations.

    Inflation-adjusted yields refer to the measure of return that takes into account the time period's inflation rate.

    Innovation-oriented equities refer to companies that offer innovative solutions and are in line with long-term secular growth trends, such as technological innovation, environmental sustainability, future health care, and the new-age consumer.

    Liquid alternatives are alternative mutual funds that often have characteristics similar to hedge funds but are public vehicles that can be traded easily.

    Green bonds are fixed income investments with proceeds used to finance projects with dedicated environmental impact

    GDP stands for gross domestic product and refers to the value of finished goods and services produced within a country's borders over one year.

    Median return is the middle return in a sorted list of each individual security's return.

    Risk premia refer to the amount by which the return of a risky asset is expected to outperform the known return on a risk-free asset.

    Leverage ratio is a financial measurement that assesses the ability of a company to meet its financial obligations.

    Interest coverage ratio is a measurement used to determine how easily a company can pay interest on its outstanding debt.

    Drawdown is a peak-to-trough decline during a specific period for an investment, trading account, or fund.

    Low quality companies would rank low based on low return on equity (LOE), high leverage or debt to equity, and unstable earnings.

    German 10Y is a bond that reflects the yield received on government bonds issued by the German government maturing in 10 years.

    Spain 10Y is a bond that reflects the yield received on government bonds issued by the Spanish government maturing in 10 years.

    US 10Y Treasury is a bond that reflects the yield received on government bonds issued by the United States government maturing in 10 years.

    United Kingdom 10Y is a bond that reflects the yield received on government bonds issued by the UK government maturing in 10 years.

    Italy 10Y reflects the yield received on government bonds issued by the Italian government maturing in 10 years.

    US 2Y Treasury is a bond that reflects the yield received on government bonds issued by the United States government maturing in 10 years.

    ICE BofA US High Yield Index value, which tracks the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market.

    ICE BofA Euro Corporate Index value, which tracks the performance of Euro dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt.

    ICE BofA High Yield Master II OAS uses an index of bonds that are below investment grade (those rated BB or below).

    EMBI (Emerging Market Bond Index) is JP Morgan's index of dollar-denominated sovereign bonds issued by a selection of emerging market countries. The Global Diversified limits the weights of countries with larger debt stocks by only including a specified portion of these countries' eligible current face amounts of debt outstanding.

    ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market.

    Risk Considerations

    All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.

    Equity securities are more volatile than bonds and subject to greater risks. Dividends are not guaranteed and a company’s future ability to pay dividends may be limited.

    Bonds are subject to interest rate, price and credit risks. Prices tend to be inversely affected by changes in interest rates. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market value of bonds.

    Investments in fixed income securities are subject to the risks associated with debt securities including credit and interest rate risk.

    Investments in foreign securities entail special risks such as currency, political, economic, and market risks. These risks are heightened in emerging markets.

    Investments in commodities may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity.

    High-yield, lower-rated securities involve greater price volatility and present greater credit risks than higher-rated fixed income securities.

    Private equity investments are speculative, highly illiquid, involve a high degree of risk, have high fees and expenses that could reduce returns, and subject to the possibility of partial or total loss of fund capital; they are, therefore, intended for experienced and sophisticated long-term investors who can accept such risks.

    Alternative Investments often engage in leverage and other investment practices that are extremely speculative and involve a high degree of risk. Such practices may increase the volatility of performance and the risk of investment loss, including the loss of the entire amount that is invested. There may be conflicts of interest relating to the Alternative Investment and its service providers, including Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Similarly, interests in an Alternative Investment are highly illiquid and generally are not transferable without the consent of the sponsor, and applicable securities and tax laws will limit transfers.

    An investment in real estate securities is subject to greater price volatility and the special risks associated with direct ownership of real estate.

    Hedge funds and other private investment funds (collectively, “Alternative Investments”) are subject to less regulation than other types of pooled investment vehicles such as mutual funds. Alternative Investments may impose significant fees, including incentive fees that are based upon a percentage of the realized and unrealized gains and an individual’s net returns may differ significantly from actual returns. Such fees may offset all or a significant portion of such Alternative Investment’s trading profits. Alternative Investments are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information. Investors may have limited rights with respect to their investments, including limited voting rights and participation in the management of such Alternative Investments.

    The above are not an exhaustive list of potential risks. There may be additional risks that should be considered before any investment decision.

    General Disclosures

    The views expressed herein are as January 17, 2023 and subject to change in the future. Individual portfolio management teams for Goldman Sachs Asset Management may have views and opinions and/or make investment decisions that, in certain instances, may not always be consistent with the views and opinions expressed herein.

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    Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect a series of assumptions and judgments as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts do not take into account the specific investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. These forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, these forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. These forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these forecasts. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only.

    Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments will fluctuate and can go down as well as up. A loss of principal may occur.

    References to indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only and do not imply that the portfolio will achieve similar results. The index composition may not reflect the manner in which a portfolio is constructed. While an adviser seeks to design a portfolio which reflects appropriate risk and return features, portfolio characteristics may deviate from those of the benchmark.

    Index Benchmarks Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends, as applicable, but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest directly in indices.

    The Global Industry Classification Standard (“GICS”) was developed by and is the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI Inc. (“MSCI”) and S&P Global Market Intelligence (“S&P”) and is licensed for use by Goldman Sachs. Neither MSCI, S&P, nor any other party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such standard or classification (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such standard or classification. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, S&P, any of their affiliates or any third party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages.

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    Date of First Use: January 19, 2023 303206-OTU-1729696

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