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In the Spotlight
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Talk to UsEquity markets gave back some recent gains, ending last week broadly lower. In the US, stronger-than-expected economic data reinforced the continued need for monetary policy tightening. Ultimately, the S&P 500 index fell –3.35%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 fell –0.93%, with the market looking to potential additional rate hikes at next week’s ECB meeting. Lastly, the Hang Seng Index rose 6.57% as the government cautiously continued its path towards economic reopening. Read More
Oil prices plummeted to a one-year low, with rising global recession risk weighing on demand expectations. Additionally, the G7 Russian oil price cap went into effect. Still, new Turkish insurance rules on tankers carrying Russian oil may constrain supply and drive upward price risk. Ultimately, WTI and Brent closed at $71.02/bbl and $76.10/bbl. The price of gold stayed largely range-bound at $1810.70/troy oz. Read More
US Treasury yields wavered last week before finally closing higher, reflecting a hotter-than-expected inflation print. Overall, the 2-Year US Treasury yield rose 5 bps while the 10-Year yield rose 7 bps. Despite this slight slope normalization, the 2s10s spread remained near a 40-year low of –76 bps. In Europe, the 10-Year UK Gilt yield rose 3 bps to 3.18%, while the 10-Year German Bund yield rose 7 bps to 1.93%. Read More
The US dollar remained relatively flat last week, appreciating 0.05% against a basket of currencies after being supported by lingering global recession fears but pressured by the potential slowing pace of rate hikes. In Europe, the euro and pound sterling also ended the week in line with where they started relative to the US dollar, closing at $1.0546 and $1.2273, respectively. Read More
China CPI YoY fell to 1.6% in November, 0.5 pp lower than consensus expected, as demand weakened further on the back of still-strict mobility restrictions. The cooling in food price inflation on the back of base effects also contributed to last month’s decline relative to underlying core inflation. Read More
The US ISM Services Index printed at 56.5, above consensus expectations of 53.5, reflecting resilient demand in the holiday season. Strong growth across a breadth of industries also shows the challenge of continued easing in near-term price pressures. Euro area 3Q GDP was revised up to 0.3% QoQ on the back of strong consumer spending and investment. Still, Euro area retail sales data showed a decline of –1.8% MoM in October, pointing to a sharp deceleration in consumer activity. We continue to expect a mild recession in the Euro area. Read More
US initial jobless claims increased by 4k to 230k, exactly in line with consensus expectations. We continue to expect a decline in job openings from historically elevated levels to soften the labor market. Read More
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index printed at 59.1, above consensus expectations of 57.0. The reading was the eighth consecutive below 60, the longest streak on record. Read More
For style performance, Large, Mid, and Small refer to the Russell 1000, Russell Midcap, and Russell 2000 indices, respectively. Value refers to companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values, and Growth refers to higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. Government, Corporate, and High Yield refer to the US Treasury index, the US Corporate Credit index, and the US High Yield index, respectively. Short, Intermediate, and Long refer to the Short, Intermediate, and Long segments of their respective curves. Quality returns refers to the credit quality of asset classes ranging from Government, highest quality, to High Yield, lowest quality.
US Headline CPI YoY (Cons: 7.3%, Prior: 7.7%)
US Core CPI YoY (Cons: 6.1%, Prior: 6.3%)
China Retail Sales, year-over-year (Cons: –3.9%, Prior: 0.5%)
UK CPIH YoY (Cons: 9.6%, Prior: 9.6%)
FOMC Rate Decision (Cons: 4.5%, Prior: 4.0%)
BoE Rate Decision (Cons: 3.5%, Prior: 3.0%)
ECB Rate Decision (Cons: 2.5%, Prior: 2.0%)
US Retail Sales MoM (Cons: –0.2%, Prior: 1.3%)
United Kingdom Retail Sales, month-over-month (Cons: 0.3%, Prior: 0.6%)
Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. For style performance, Large, Mid, and Small for US Equity refer to the Russell 1000, Russell Midcap, and Russell 2000 indices, respectively. Value refers to companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values, and Growth refers to higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. For US Fixed Income, Government, Corporate, and High Yield refer to the Bloomberg Treasury, Bloomberg Corporate Credit, and Bloomberg High Yield indices, respectively. Short, Intermediate, and Long refer to the Short, Intermediate, and Long segments of their respective curves. For European Fixed Income, Government, Corporate, and High Yield refer to the Bloomberg Euro Treasury Index, the Bloomberg Euro Corporate Index, and the Bloomberg Euro High Yield Index, respectively. Quality returns refers to the credit quality of asset classes ranging from Government, highest quality, to High Yield, lowest quality. Since August 24, 2021, the Barclays indices are branded “Bloomberg indices”. Please see end disclosures for footnotes. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary.
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