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In the Spotlight
In the Spotlight
In The Spotlight
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Talk to UsUS equities fell last week on the back of mixed economic data and weakness amongst select Magnificent 7 firms. The S&P 500 ultimately ended the week –0.45% lower after closing out 2024 with four straight down days for the first time in almost 60 years. Elsewhere, the STOXX Europe 600 and FTSE 100 rose 0.22% and 0.92%, respectively, supported by strong energy sector performance. Read More
Oil prices rose sharply last week behind hopes that further economic stimulus in China will help drive increased consumption in 2025. WTI and Brent crude ultimately ended the week at $73.96 and $76.51/bbl, respectively, as colder temperatures across the US and Europe helped to boost demand. Meanwhile, gold prices rose to $2679.50/troy oz amid continued concern within the US housing market. Read More
US Treasury yields fell slightly last week despite strong manufacturing and labor market data indicating further resilience in the US economy. The 2-Year and 10-Year US Treasury yields ended the week at 4.28% and 4.60%, respectively. Across the pond, the 10-Year UK Gilt yield followed suit while the 10-Year German Bund yield closed higher, ending the week at 4.59% and 2.42%, respectively. Read More
The US dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies last week on the back of a decline in jobless claims during the historically volatile holiday season. Ultimately, the US dollar index ended the week up 0.87%. Meanwhile, the Chinese Yuan weakened against the dollar to ¥7.2081, as recent declines in Chinese manufacturing appeared to overshadow improved services activity. Read More
In the US, the ISM manufacturing index increased by 0.9pt to 49.3 in December, against consensus expectations for a modest decline. The underlying composition of the print was mixed, as the new orders and production components increased, while the employment component declined. The S&P Global US manufacturing PMI was revised up by 1.1pt to 49.4 in the final December reading, above consensus expectations. Specifically, the output, new orders, and employment components were all part of the upward revision. On another note, Chicago PMI printed at 36.9 in December, below consensus expectations for 42.7 and a decrease from lasts month’s reading of 40.2. Read More
US initial jobless claims decreased by 9k to 211k in the week ended December 28, somewhat below consensus expectations for a roughly unchanged reading. The four-week moving average of jobless claims fell by 4k to 223k. Additionally, nationwide continuing claims decreased by 52k to 1,844k in the week ended December 21, below consensus expectations. Our colleagues in GIR note that seasonal adjustment challenges can make jobless claims readings particularly volatile around the holiday season. Read More
China’s NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in December from 50.3 in November, led by declines in the output and employment components. Conversely, improved activity in the services and construction sectors led to an increase in the non-manufacturing PMI to 52.2, from 50.0 in November. China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI also fell, coming in at 50.5 in December, against consensus expectations of 51.7. Read More
For US Fixed Income, Government, Corporate, and High Yield refer to the Bloomberg US Treasury, the Bloomberg US Corporate Credit, and the Bloomberg US High Yield indices, respectively. For European Fixed Income, Government, Corporate, and High Yield refer to the Bloomberg Euro Treasury Index, the Bloomberg Euro Corporate Index, and the Bloomberg Euro High Yield Index, respectively. Short, Intermediate, and Long refer to the Short, Intermediate, and Long segments of their respective curves. Quality returns refers to the credit quality of asset classes ranging from Government, highest quality, to High Yield, lowest quality. Since August 24, 2016, the Barclays indices are co-branded “Bloomberg Barclays indices”.
US Services PMI
(Cons: 58.5, Prior: 56.1)
US JOLTS Job Openings (Cons: 7.770M, Prior: 7.744M)
US ISM Non-Manuf PMI (Cons: 53.2, Prior: 52.1)
FOMC Minutes
US National Day Holiday
US Nonfarm Payrolls
(Cons: 154K, Prior: 227K)
US Unemployment Rate
(Cons: 4.2%, Prior: 4.2%)
US Avg Hourly Earnings MoM (Cons: 0.3%, Prior: 0.4%)
“PMI” refers to Purchasing Managers’ Index. “ISM” refers to the Institute for Supply Management. “MoM” refers to month-over-month. “BoJ” refers to Bank of Japan. “FOMC” refers to Federal Open Market Committee. “ECB” refers to European Central Bank. “BoE” refers to Bank of England.
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