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Central banks and inflation are the two main actors in a play not seen in decades. After many unexpected twists and turns, inflation has continued to be a dominant theme, fueled by tight labor markets, supply chain dynamics, and geopolitical tensions. In the US, the Fed has credibly embarked on policy tightening to rein in price pressures. Elsewhere, other major central banks also stand ready to "catch" inflation, though with different policy paths relative to the US.
Western major central banks have embarked on one of the fastest monetary policy tightening cycles in recent history. As a result, the rise in long-term interest rates has been both broad and steep. A year ago, around one quarter of all global government debt had a negative nominal yield. Today, fixed income investors can receive positive income from sovereign bonds almost everywhere, with the sole exception of Japan.
Source: Bloomberg, GIR, Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
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