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We see current conditions as largely benign as long as investors understand that risk may no longer be linear. Political shocks and policy-related risks are the variables to watch, whereas we see recession risk as still moderate.
The frequency of President Trump’s tweets has increased over the past few years from about 300 in September 2016 to nearly 800 last month. However, the impact of each tweet has varied. Tweets directly addressing the Fed appear to exert no statistically significant effect on the market’s expectations for monetary policy. In our view, trade-related tweets tend to indirectly influence the market’s view on monetary policy due to their macro implications.
Source: Bloomberg and GSAM. As of October 3, 2019.
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