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Complex markets can be difficult to decipher. We provide investment professionals and their clients with a global perspective to help explain the issues and trends affecting their portfolios.
Central banks and inflation are the two main actors in a play not seen in decades. After many unexpected twists and turns, inflation has continued to be a dominant theme, fueled by tight labor markets, supply chain dynamics, and geopolitical tensions. In the US, the Fed has credibly embarked on policy tightening to rein in price pressures. Elsewhere, other major central banks also stand ready to "catch" inflation, though with different policy paths relative to the US.
The Fed continues to tighten financial conditions, having raised the funds rate 75bps to 1.50-1.75% last week following “eye-catching” increases in inflation expectations. While the Fed only directly tightens through short-term interest rates, market perception of the Fed’s policy path consequently influences long-term interest rates, credit spreads, equity prices, and the US dollar. Taken together, these effects may help slow aggregate demand and ease inflation.
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research and GS Asset Management.
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