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The more promising start to 2023 has benefitted from the reduction in acute European energy risk and strong Chinese economic momentum in reopening. Recent data trends have strengthened the global “soft landing” narrative, though good news remains a double-edged sword. Resilient growth may potentially invite additional rate hikes and threaten to elongate the economic adjustment that began last year, even though credit tightening as a result of recent bank stress may at least partly offset the need for higher terminal rates. Consequently, the evolution of the growth-inflation mix, and commensurate monetary responses remain the prevailing risks in 2023.
Mega-cap stocks have collectively outperformed the S&P 500 by 34pp YTD following moderating interest rates and an improved earnings outlook. We believe their outperformance can continue if growth remains far enough below potential to keep rates near current levels. However, they walk a narrow path, in our view: if growth reaccelerates (causing rates to rise) or a recession occurs (driving equity exposure lower), mega-cap names may be vulnerable again.
Source: Compustat, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
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