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A confluence of macro uncertainties–decelerating GDP growth, a tight labor market, and elevated inflation–may continue to invite market volatility across risk asset performance. However, from levels today, we think the risks have also become more balanced. History suggests that the US equity market tends to rally strongly in the 6-months following a bear market bottom. For US small caps, the recovery is especially pronounced in the early innings of an economic cycle.
Global equities saw many reversals last week as risk sentiment remained dented from rising US-China tensions and the Fed’s retreat from its earlier less hawkish tone. The S&P 500 closed up 0.39% following favorable labor and activity prints at the end of the week. European markets had more muted responses as Euro area unemployment rate printed in-line with market expectations, with the STOXX 600 closing up 0.22% and the FTSE 100 finishing up 0.36%. Read More
Global oil prices dropped to their lowest levels since February as demand concern heightened. WTI and Brent crude ended last week lower at $89.01 and $94.92 per barrel, respectively, on the back of foggy demand outlook, a looming debt crisis in emerging markets, and shrinking factory activity in China. Gold finished the week up slightly at $1791.20 per ounce as geopolitical tensions rose slightly. Read More
Global sovereign yields increased last week as positive economic data eased recession fears. The 10-Year US Treasury yield rose to 2.84% on the back of higher-than-expected nonfarm payrolls and positive prints for the services PMI and factory orders. Similarly, the 10-Year UK Gilt yield rose to 2.05% as the BoE engineered a 50 bp rate hike, the largest policy hike seen in over two decades. Read More
The US dollar appreciated last week against a basket of currencies as a hawkish Fed, escalating US-China tensions, and a strong jobs report drove the index up 0.70%. In Europe, the euro and pound sterling depreciated against the US dollar to $1.0176 and $1.2063, respectively, despite a surprise 50 bp BoE hike. Read More
In the US, nonfarm payrolls rose 528k in July, more than double consensus expectations. The unemployment rate dropped 0.1pp to 3.5%, matching a pre-pandemic low. US initial jobless claims rose by 6k to 260k for the week ending July 30, in line with expectations. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings fell by 605k to 10.7k in June, a larger-than-expected drop, signaling that wage growth could slow in the second half of 2022. In the Euro area, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at a historical low of 6.6%. Read More
The BoE voted by a majority of 8-1 for a 50 bp increase in the bank rate on the back of elevated domestic price pressures and a tight labor market. Looking forward, we anticipate another 50 bp hike in September with the central bank remaining data-dependent. Read More
The US ISM Services index increased to 56.7 in July against consensus expectations for a decrease. At a component level, factory orders beat expectations, rising by 2.0%. In the Euro area, July composite PMI has been revised up 0.5pp to 49.9 dipping into contractionary territory. In China, the Caixin Services PMI printed at 55.5 in July, the highest reading since April 2021. Read More
For US Fixed Income, Government, Corporate, and High Yield refer to the Bloomberg US Treasury, the Bloomberg US Corporate Credit, and the Bloomberg US High Yield indices, respectively. For European Fixed Income, Government, Corporate, and High Yield refer to the Bloomberg Euro Treasury Index, the Bloomberg Euro Corporate Index, and the Bloomberg Euro High Yield Index, respectively. Short, Intermediate, and Long refer to the Short, Intermediate, and Long segments of their respective curves. Quality returns refers to the credit quality of asset classes ranging from Government, highest quality, to High Yield, lowest quality. Since August 24, 2016, the Barclays indices are co-branded “Bloomberg Barclays indices”.
US Core CPI YoY
(Cons: 6.1%, Prior: 5.9%)
US Headline CPI YoY
(Cons: 8.9%, Prior: 9.1%)
US Crude Oil Inventories
(Cons: N/A, Prior: 4.467M)
US Initial Jobless Claims
(Cons: N/A, Prior: 260k)
US PPI MoM
(Cons: 0.3%, Prior: 1.1%)
UK GDP QoQ
(Cons: N/A, Prior: 0.8%
UK Manuf. Production MoM
(Cons: N/A, Prior: 1.4%)
UMich. Consumer Sentiment Survey
(Cons: 52.0, Prior: 51.5)
“US Core CPI YoY” refers to the change in the US Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy, year-over-year. “US Headline CPI YoY” refers to the change in the US Consumer Price Index, year-over-year. “US Crude Oil Inventories” refers to the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. “US Initial Jobless Claims” refers to the number of people filing to receive unemployment insurance benefits for the week ending August 5, 2022. “US PPI MoM refers to the United States Producer Price Index, month-over-month. “UK GDP” refers to the United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product growth for Q2, quarter-over-quarter. “UK Manufacturing Prod.” refers to the United Kingdom’s Manufacturing Production, month-over-month. “Umich. Consumer Sentiment Survey” refers to the survey results comparing the relative level of both current and future economic conditions. “ECB Meeting” refers to the European Central Bank’s meeting. “BoE Meeting” refers to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting. “FOMC Meeting” refers to the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
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