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In the Spotlight
In the Spotlight
In The Spotlight
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Western major central banks have embarked on one of the fastest monetary policy tightening cycles in recent history. As a result, the rise in long-term interest rates has been both broad and steep. A year ago, around one quarter of all global government debt had a negative nominal yield. Today, fixed income investors can receive positive income from sovereign bonds almost everywhere, with the sole exception of Japan.
US equities moved higher last week after the November FOMC minutes signaled the intention to slow the pace of hiking. The S&P 500 ended the week up 1.56%, driven mostly by defensive sectors such as Healthcare & Utilities. Meanwhile, European equities extended their positive streak as November’s flash PMI report indicated that economic contraction eased in the Euro area. The STOXX 600 and FTSE 100 ended up 1.76% and 1.49%, respectively. Read More
Oil prices fell further last week as reports suggested that the G7 was considering a price cap on Russian oil of $65-70/bbl, substantially higher than the $40-60/bbl range previously discussed, reducing retaliation risk. Brent and WTI fell to $83.63 and $76.28 per barrel, respectively. Gold prices ended the week flat at $1,768.80 per troy ounce as the tailwinds of lower interest rates were offset by the pressures of reduced equity market volatility. Read More
Global sovereign yields moved lower last week with yield curves in both the US and Europe further inverting on the back of rising recession risk. In the US, the 2-Year and 10-Year US Treasury yields closed the week at 4.48% and 3.70%, respectively. In Europe, the 10-Year Bund yield fell to 1.97% despite a better-than-expected consumer confidence report. Read More
The US dollar weakened against a basket of currencies, ending the week lower amid expectations that the Fed may soon slow hikes. The continued optimism in markets evidenced by the recent rise in risk asset prices continued to weigh on the greenback, with the US dollar index ultimately closing -0.67% lower. Meanwhile, the euro and pound sterling advanced further against the US dollar, closing at $1.0406 and $1.2095, respectively. Read More
The November FOMC minutes released last Wednesday indicated that although inflation remains uncomfortably high, a slower pace of hiking would likely soon be appropriate. In our view, given the significant lagged effects of policy tightening on the economy, a slower pace of hiking would allow Fed officials to better assess the progress toward their dual objectives – price stability and maximum employment. Following the State Council meeting early last week in China, the PBoC announced a 25 bps RRR cut for most financial institutions. This decision aims to maintain liquidity at reasonable levels while keeping broad credit growth largely in line with nominal GDP growth. Read More
The US flash composite PMI came out at 46.3 in November, lower than consensus expectations of 47.7. The report indicated that demand weakness weighed further on private sector business activity. On the other hand, composite PMIs both in the Euro area and UK improved in November, coming at 47.8 and 48.3, respectively. In the Euro area specifically, the intensity of the downturn moderated in response to easing supply constraints and a pick-up in business confidence. Additionally, price pressures started to show some signs of cooling, most notably in the manufacturing sector. Read More
Initial Jobless Claims increased by 17k to 240k for the week ending November 18th, versus consensus expectations for a more modest increase. This sharp increase came amid rising layoffs in the technology sector. In our view, sustained and convincing evidence of a material shift in labor market conditions will be necessary for the Fed to recalibrate. Read More
For US Fixed Income, Government, Corporate, and High Yield refer to the Bloomberg US Treasury, the Bloomberg US Corporate Credit, and the Bloomberg US High Yield indices, respectively. For European Fixed Income, Government, Corporate, and High Yield refer to the Bloomberg Euro Treasury Index, the Bloomberg Euro Corporate Index, and the Bloomberg Euro High Yield Index, respectively. Short, Intermediate, and Long refer to the Short, Intermediate, and Long segments of their respective curves. Quality returns refers to the credit quality of asset classes ranging from Government, highest quality, to High Yield, lowest quality. Since August 24, 2016, the Barclays indices are co-branded “Bloomberg Barclays indices”.
Euro Area CPI YoY (Cons: 11.2%, Prior: 10.6%)
US JOLTS (Cons: 10.350M, Prior: 10.717M)
US Initial Jobless Claims (Cons: 233k, Prior: 240k)
Euro area Unemployment (Cons: 6.6%,Prior: 6.6%)
US Core PCE Price Index (Cons: 5.0%, Prior: 5.1%)
Nonfarm Payrolls (Cons:200K, Prior: 261K)
“Euro Area CPI” refers to the Eurostat Eurozone Monetary Union Index of Consumer Prices (MUICP) All Items Year over Year (YoY) Flash Estimate. “US JOLTS” refers to the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. “US Initial Jobless Claims” refers to the measure of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the prior week. “US Core PCE Price Index” refers to US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy, year-over-year. “FOMC” refers to Federal Open Market Committee. “ECB” refers to the European Central Bank. “BoE” refers to the Bank of England.
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