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Macro Trends and Views: Four Charts on Key Policy Challenges

Europe

“The European Central Bank has been effective at driving funding costs lower across Europe, both through the bank channel and the corporate bond channel. This is supportive for the economy but is hurting bank profitability. We think central banks are taking steps to reduce the impact, but in the near-term, bank revenues and profitability will remain under pressure.”

Alexis Deladerrière
Fundamental Equity Team

Source: Haver Analytics, ECB. As of July 2016.

UK

“UK long-term real interest rates have fallen to new all-time lows following the EU referendum and the Bank of England’s rate cut. In other words, the market is pricing UK rates to remain low for a very long time. This is going to create significant challenges for many UK pensions that use inflation-linked securities to hedge against inflation-linked liabilities, as declining real rates have made this hedge a very expensive proposition.”

Andrew Wilson
Global Fixed Income Team

Source: GSAM. As of September 2016. UK real rate adjusted to account for differences in inflation measures.

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