Complex markets can be difficult to decipher. We provide investment professionals and their clients with a global perspective to help explain the issues and trends affecting their portfolios.
Given the multiplicity of factors elevating uncertainty in today’s environment, we are reminded that in order to fully recover a -35% loss, a portfolio must subsequently return +35% and then an additional +14%. The hurdle for recovery from large losses is high. While risk assets may still be attractive, portfolios assembled in a risk-aware manner may help to reduce volatility and narrow the recovery gap.
Source: GSAM. As of July 31, 2020.
The consequences of COVID-19 will not be equally distributed. Our forecast is for the sudden deceleration in economic activity to be most acute in the second quarter, followed by a resurgence in growth.
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