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    All Insights Perspectives

    CIO Corner - Perspectives from Elizabeth Burton

    CIO CORNER – PERSPECTIVES FROM ELIZABETH BURTON

    April 20, 2023  |  7 Minute Read

    Elizabeth Burton

    Client Investment Strategist, Client Solutions Group

    Elizabeth Burton

    Key Takeaways

    • Many institutions are better able to address private market overallocation issues today than in prior cycles due to adjustments to investment policies. However, even for institutions with more flexible policies, there remain challenges in maintaining proper vintage year and strategy diversification.
     
    • Liquidity is top of mind for many CIOs, particularly those with near-term liabilities and/or mature private market portfolios. Broad-based scenario analyses are most helpful in modeling—and subsequently preparing for—worst-case scenarios.
     
    • Adaptability remains key as the market environment continues to change rapidly. Where possible, CIOs should consider leveraging technology and outsourced solutions to enable deeper internal focus on the areas most likely to drive outperformance.

    How big an issue are the numerator and denominator effects for CIOs, and how are they addressing them?

     

    Elizabeth Burton: For investors with tight strategic asset allocation (SAA) policies and narrow tolerance band limits around those policies, the numerator and denominator effects have been a frustrating recent hurdle in portfolio construction. We’ve seen some Limited Partners adjusting their policies to allow for additional leeway, assumedly having learned lessons from the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). While these were likely implemented as a risk management tool, the practical implications have left CIOs with challenges pacing investments into private markets and, in a bind, being forced to raise liquidity—especially for pensions with high payout ratios of 2% or more. This has caused vintage year diversification issues, the inability to participate in co-investments, and the misalignment of both risk and opportunity costs. The problem is most acute for those with large, mature allocations to private equity and/or low allocations to real assets and private credit.

     

    CIOs are considering a variety of solutions to address these challenges, but in nearly all cases teams have initially endeavored to work with stakeholders (i.e., boards and consultants) to tackle these short-term constraints by adding wider tolerance bands or by shifting asset allocation targets. While portfolio sales were a popular topic of discussion last year, these have since faded. Other considerations being discussed include portfolio lines of credit, collateralized financing, portfolio realignment, leverage, and cash flow matching. The extent to which each of these options is pursued has depended upon the investment objectives, risk tolerances and investment policies of the plan in scope.

     

     

    “We’ve seen some LPs adjusting their policies to allow for additional leeway, assumedly having learned lessons from the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC)”

     

     

    Portfolios with low or zero allocation to private credit and real assets may face hurdles adding to these strategies in a public or private fashion and may be unable to capitalize on one of the strongest tailwinds we are seeing for private credit and real assets. This skews portfolio risk away from Plan targets, as Plans may experience an overweight to equities, beta, and growth risk. An additional challenge for many CIOs is that these equity exposures, particularly on the public side, are heavily oriented toward prior winners (and therefore underweight new winners), due to Plan benchmarking. This may leave investors strategically underweight thematically to the five long-term structural trends we are seeing across markets – deglobalization, destabilization of geopolitical order, digitalization, demographics, decarbonization (Editor's Note: Please reference our last edition of Perspectives for more commentary on considerations for private fund cash flows and allocations).

     

     

    How are investors evaluating committing capital to new funds vs. preserving liquidity?

     

    Burton: Anecdotally, we have observed that as capital is being returned to CIOs (either through redemptions, distributions, or public markets rebounding), they are taking the intermittent liquidity and recommitting to private markets and, in some instances, liquid alternatives. On the former, we are seeing 50% haircuts to re-ups with existing partners and a rationing of key relationships. While co-investments were a popular buzzword pre-COVID-19, this has died down a little over the last year. From an SAA angle, many CIOs are considering starting a real asset program if one isn’t already in place, or alternatively increasing the commitment to real assets as an inflation hedge.

     

    One major and concerning hurdle we are witnessing is a slowdown in commitments to new strategies ex-US. During COVID, many US institutional investors and consultants reduced or stopped international travel. While we are seeing consistent due diligence travel for our ex-US clients, those in the US continue to remain mostly domestic. This problem is compounded in instances where their consultant counterparts are also sticking close to home. Some US investors are still allocating to non-US funds despite forgoing onsite visits to managers or the countries in which they plan to invest, which adds an additional layer of ambiguity. If an individual in the market for a home bought a house solely based on Zillow photographs, without an in-person visit, they likely would not know that the unpictured fourth bathroom is a total gut or that the house is on a chaotic street. This parallels the ambiguity and risk tied to investing without proper boots-on-the-ground due diligence.

     

    We believe it is important for investors to spend more time in foreign markets, given the heightened interest in single-country funds in both public and private markets and the opportunities for alpha ex-US arising from China's reopening, diverging central bank policies, deglobalization and geopolitical tensions. If investors are constrained from travel, it is crucial that they have loyal partners with longstanding local ties to the area.

     

     

    How are investors thinking about and measuring liquidity, and the spectrum of liquidity?  Where do things get uncomfortable?

     

    Burton: For investors with liquidity constraints, lower funding ratios (i.e., plan assets as a percentage of liabilities), larger allocations to private markets, and/or higher annual benefits payouts, liquidity is assessed without accounting for the potential forced liquidation of valuable assets. For example, some will “shock” their liquid portfolios by 20%-30% drawdowns and calculate how many years’ worth of benefits they are able to pay out without needing to force liquidations to raise capital. Some take this a step further by haircutting or eliminating the mandatory contributions in preparation for worst-case scenarios. The lower the ratio produced by this analysis, the more anxious the investor. If there is a Plan history of moratoriums on contributions, these concerns are even greater. While most investors have liquidity on hand, they do not tend to think of their public markets portfolios as liquidity providers – potentially because it is difficult to rely on something that can experience 30% drawdowns for liquidity. There has been heightened focus around augmenting efficiency in public markets and allocating to more cash-efficient strategies, but for many stakeholders this is a long educational period resulting in slower implementation.

     

     

    In an environment like this, where prior experience may not be a perfect guide, what characteristics will help CIOs to successfully navigate their portfolios and teams?

     

    Burton: In unprecedented times, investors are no longer able to rely solely on prior experience as a “perfect roadmap” because there is a lot of new terrain. I faced a similar hurdle as a younger allocator as I questioned how to best manage a portfolio of assets in a decade defined by a single market environment. During this time, I found it invaluable to surround myself with teammates and partners with greater breadth and diversified exposures to a variety of market scenarios. As an investor in the industry, I cannot emphasize enough the value of building a personal board of directors; whether it’s through your staff, your internal board, or your external managers, make sure you are seeking out a variety of voices. The synergy that comes from diversity of thought is invaluable. This is like building an athletic team – every recruit should not bring the same strengths to the table. A team needs both the diversity of talent as well as culture of trust to be able to lean on their teammates and colleagues for different plays and market environments.

     

    Beyond the dividends that will come from building your best team, investors could consider investing passively where alpha opportunities are low, looking to active in dislocated or fragmented markets, and leaning into your strengths when investing. On this last point, it makes sense no matter what kind of investor you are. If your team is excellent at assessing co-investments in credit, lean into that niche and seek opportunities there. If your portfolio has excellent cash management, leverage that and be nimble. If there is no obvious advantage in any one asset class, then leverage the global partners that do have a sustainable, repeatable edge in those markets.

     

    “As an investor in the industry, I cannot emphasize enough the value of building a personal board of directors; whether it’s through your staff, your internal board, or your external managers, make sure you are seeking out a variety of voices.”

     

     

    Many investors are contending with resource constraints due to tight labor markets and budgetary focus.  Where do you think are the most effective areas for CIOs to spend their resources?  

     

    Burton: First, leveraging technology services in tight labor markets can pay huge dividends in the long run. While effectively leveraging technology often requires up-front time, attention, and resources, this initial investment has a very high potential ROI and can lead to exponential rewards in the long run, particularly while staffing is thin.

     

    Second, investors should outsource what they are able to, and hone internal resources on areas of strength. This is an ideal environment to leverage external partnerships to outsource talent across a broad spectrum – investment analysis, investment advice, staffing, human resources, logistics, organizational restructuring, general consulting, etc. Outsourcing can be a prudent risk management tool, particularly when time and resource constraints are prevalent.

     

    Third, it is crucial for CIOs to devote time each week to networking with peers outside of their local geographical footprint. It’s surprising how little dialogue often occurs between investors in different countries or even between those representing different clients (e.g., endowments versus corporates). Now more than ever, it is critical to start and maintain dialogue with investors spanning the globe, to leverage diversity of thought and experience, and to learn from one another. Now is the time to strengthen global investing muscles.

     

     

     

     

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