GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCH
Investment Ideas 2022: Explore three key themes dominating markets where investors might uncover potential opportunities. Read More
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In our view, US aggregate real incomes will meaningfully rise by 3.75% in 2023, driven by continued job gains, positive real wage growth, above-normal cost of living adjustments, normalizing effective tax rates, and higher interest income. That said, these factors skew toward benefitting higher-income households that have a lower propensity to spend, suggesting the translation from real income growth to real spending growth may be more muted than normal.
Source: GS Global Investment Research and GS Asset Management.
The promising start to 2023 has benefitted from the reduction in acute European energy risk and strong Chinese economic momentum in reopening. Recent data trends have strengthened the global “soft landing” narrative, though good news remains a double-edged sword. Resilient growth may potentially invite additional rate hikes and threaten to elongate the economic adjustment that began last year. Consequently, the evolution of the growth-inflation mix and commensurate monetary responses remain our prevailing risk in 2023.
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