Complex markets can be difficult to decipher. We provide investment professionals and their clients with a global perspective to help explain the issues and trends affecting their portfolios.
We see current conditions as largely benign as long as investors understand that risk may no longer be linear. Political shocks and policy-related risks are the variables to watch, whereas we see recession risk as still moderate.
A recent dip below 50 in the US ISM Manufacturing Index has reignited recession fears. While often interpreted as a recessionary signal, we believe its signaling power is limited as 1) prints remain above 45, a level many strategists consider to be more telling, 2) historically a sub-50 reading preceded a recession less than half the time and 3) the economy is less reliant on the manufacturing sector.
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GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCH
Follow trends in the global economy, including policy issues and analysis of economic development from Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.