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MARKET MONITOR 
|
November 19

MARKET MONITOR | November 19

Chart of the Week


COVID-19

Rising global COVID-19 cases have raised concerns that we are on the brink of a fourth wave. While a new wave could bring several challenges, the impact may be more muted than those seen in prior waves. Vaccine availability, the development of new medications, and a lower appetite for lockdowns may mean less severe health and economic consequences, and a potentially reduced impact on portfolios.

Source: Our World In Data, JHU CSSE, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Market Summary


GLOBAL EQUITIES

US equities saw a choppy week of trading based on mixed sentiment from strong retail sales and labor data versus elevated inflation and Fed policy concerns. The S&P 500 finally ended the week higher at 0.36%. In the UK, the FTSE 100 declined –1.64% following the UK’s decade-high inflation print, which fueled BoE rate hike expectations. The EuroStoxx 600 ended relatively flat at -0.11% as inflation data reversed positive, earnings-driven sentiment. Read More

COMMODITIES

Concerns over dwindling inventories were alleviated following the API’s report of a crude inventory build and the OPEC’s monthly report, which stated that rising supply could ease oil market tightness. Moreover, a potential effort to add crude supply from US and Chinese strategic stockpiles may also ease near-term price surges. Brent and WTI finally ended the week lower at $76.10 and $78.89 per barrel, respectively. Read More

FIXED INCOME

US Treasury yields saw mixed performance this past week, as strong economic data reflecting favorable consumer sentiment and improving labor conditions was offset by speculation around the Fed chair election and the associated policy outcomes. These movements finally drove the 10-Year US Treasury yield lower to 1.53%. In Europe, worsening COVID-19 cases and potential lockdown concerns led the 10-Year UK Gilt and German Bund yields lower to 0.88% and -0.34%, respectively. Read More

FX

The US dollar index rose last week as expectations for a potentially more hawkish Fed continued to prop up the US dollar, ultimately leading the greenback to rise 0.71% against a basket of peers. In Europe, higher-than-expected UK CPI drove the sterling higher to $1.3447 while the euro ended the week lower at $1.1289. Read More

Economic Summary


ACTIVITY

US retail sales rose by a greater-than-expected 1.7% in October, reflecting robust spending even amid rising prices and supply chain constraints. The print was driven by non-store retail, gasoline stations, and electronics categories, but offset by weaker sales in clothing and health-related stores. Read More

GROWTH

The first estimate of Japan’s Q3 GDP growth posted significantly lower than expected, at -3.0% QoQ annualized. The reading came as state of emergency and infection control measures weighed on the economy, with capex, consumer spending, and exports seeing the sharpest declines. Read More

LABOR

US initial jobless claims moved lower for the seventh week in a row, posting 268k for the week ended November 13, down from 269k in the week prior. The print marks a new pandemic-era low, suggesting that the economy is continuing on its recovery track. UK labor market improved further in September with the ILO unemployment rate at 4.3%, beating market consensus of 4.4%. Coupled with higher-than-expected consumer price annual inflation (4.2% vs. 3.9%), UK labor market tightness points to a December liftoff. Read More

Style Performance


US Equity Size & Style Returns

MONTH-TO-DATE

Large
-0.37%
1.80%
3.75%
Medium
1.16%
1.03%
0.79%
Small
2.50%
2.08%
1.67%
Value
Core
Growth

YEAR-TO-DATE

Large
21.58%
25.40%
28.85%
Medium
25.99%
23.27%
18.22%
Small
30.80%
19.63%
9.44%
Value
Core
Growth

MSCI World Size & Style Returns

MONTH-TO-DATE

Large
-0.49%
1.60%
3.46%
Medium
0.47%
1.02%
1.61%
Small
0.92%
0.74%
0.55%
Value
Core
Growth

YEAR-TO-DATE

Large
18.20%
21.82%
24.84%
Medium
20.15%
18.33%
15.78%
Small
21.68%
18.18%
14.44%
Value
Core
Growth

US Fixed Income Maturity and Quality Returns

MONTH-TO-DATE

Government
-0.09%
-0.00%
0.62%
Corporate
-0.17%
-0.16%
-0.08%
High Yield
-0.03%
-0.05%
0.34%
Short
Intermed.
Long

YEAR-TO-DATE

Government
-1.05%
-1.72%
-5.19%
Corporate
-0.48%
-1.15%
-1.18%
High Yield
5.36%
4.04%
8.25%
Short
Intermed.
Long

European Fixed Income Maturity and Quality Returns

MONTH-TO-DATE

Government
0.41%
1.62%
2.85%
Corporate
0.19%
0.93%
1.65%
High Yield
0.41%
??????
??????
Short
Intermed.
Long

YEAR-TO-DATE

Government
-0.34%
-0.72%
-3.98%
Corporate
0.21%
-0.06%
-2.10%
High Yield
3.50%
??????
??????
Short
Intermed.
Long

Source: Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs Asset Management (as of 11/19/21)

VIEW LESS DISCLOSURE

Key Economic Releases


Monday, Nov 22

Tuesday, Nov 23

Euro area Composite PMI (Cons: 53.0, Prior: 54.2)

Wednesday, Nov 24

Germany Ifo Business (Cons: 96.7, Prior: 97.7)
US Jobless Claims (Cons: 261k, Prior: 268k)
UMich Cons. Sentiment (Cons: 66.9, Prior: 66.8)

Thursday, Nov 25

Friday, Nov 26

VIEW LESS DISCLOSURE

Stay Informed and Be Ahead of the Curve


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