Four charts outline key observations and things investors should watch out for in the US, Europe, Japan and China.
The saying ‘sell in May and go away’ refuses itself to go away.
The US is shedding excess capacity at a faster rate than most of its developed world peers, which supports our outlook for inflation to strengthen and sharpens our focus on the risk of rates volatility.
Time-series and cross-sectional analysis support our expectation for US wage growth to pick up in the near future.
We believe the balance of secular drivers over the next several years is inflationary, as a range of factors that have suppressed prices over the past decade are reaching inflection points.
The weak transmission of growth to inflation in the developed world creates challenges for policymakers, raising the risks of a policy misstep.
Short-term interest rate markets have attracted considerable attention in the bond market recently, primarily due to a sharp rise in the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) relative to a measure of overnight interest rates known as overnight index swaps (OIS).
With tax reform enacted, budget caps raised and regulation rolled back, the US Administration has shifted its focus to trade policy, which has turned more hawkish in 2018.
In Sunday’s Italian general election, no party was able to capture a majority of parliament, while the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and Eurosceptic Lega party captured a larger-than-expected share of the vote.
Stay connected on the latest market developments and investment themes
As the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, will this bring volatility to the markets in 2018? And how will US tax reform, something we haven’t seen since 1986, impact investors?
View GSAM's thought leaders and portfolio managers as they discuss the impact across all asset classes.
Each week the Fixed Income team releases its views on macro strategies including duration, country and currency, and sector strategies such as securitized debt, corporate credit, emerging markets debt, government/agency, and municipals.
Emerging markets economies are expected to expand providing an attractive backdrop for both equity and credit investors.
Fixed income sectors were not immune to risk-off sentiment that followed firmer-than-expected inflation data last month, but generally fared better than equity markets, where the magnitude of the move was accentuated by volatility-oriented trading strategies.
Access more insights from across GSAM
Stay informed on timely views and market developments