Four charts outline key observations and things investors should watch out for in the US, Europe, Japan and China.
The saying ‘sell in May and go away’ refuses itself to go away.
The US is shedding excess capacity at a faster rate than most of its developed world peers, which supports our outlook for inflation to strengthen and sharpens our focus on the risk of rates volatility.
Time-series and cross-sectional analysis support our expectation for US wage growth to pick up in the near future.
We believe the balance of secular drivers over the next several years is inflationary, as a range of factors that have suppressed prices over the past decade are reaching inflection points.
The weak transmission of growth to inflation in the developed world creates challenges for policymakers, raising the risks of a policy misstep.
We believe a portion of the BBB-rated market with US investment grade corporate credit bears monitoring, particularly as we progress through the elongated cycle. There is scope for downgrade activity to pick-up as we shift from a macro backdrop of above-trend growth and contained inflation to moderating growth and rising inflation.
The US midterm elections on November 6th resulted in a divided government—the widely expected outcome—with the Democratic Party gaining control of the House while the Republican Party maintained their majority in the Senate. We believe the markets are largely priced for this outcome and the election outcome is likely to have a limited effect on market volatility.
The ten key thoughts on the recent selloff, many of which discuss factors that extend beyond a single day’s move.
Stay connected on the latest market developments and investment themes
As the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, will this bring volatility to the markets in 2018? And how will US tax reform, something we haven’t seen since 1986, impact investors?
View GSAM's thought leaders and portfolio managers as they discuss the impact across all asset classes.
Our portfolio manager discusses what factors in the US economy may cause inflation to accelerate
Each week the Fixed Income team releases its views on macro strategies including duration, country and currency, and sector strategies such as securitized debt, corporate credit, emerging markets debt, government/agency, and municipals.
Each month the Fixed Income team releases an overview of recent developments in credit markets and key views within investment grade, high yield and leveraged loans.
Access more insights from across GSAM
Stay informed on timely views and market developments