Four charts outline key observations and things investors should watch out for in the US, Europe, Japan and China.
The saying ‘sell in May and go away’ refuses itself to go away.
The US is shedding excess capacity at a faster rate than most of its developed world peers, which supports our outlook for inflation to strengthen and sharpens our focus on the risk of rates volatility.
Time-series and cross-sectional analysis support our expectation for US wage growth to pick up in the near future.
We believe the balance of secular drivers over the next several years is inflationary, as a range of factors that have suppressed prices over the past decade are reaching inflection points.
The weak transmission of growth to inflation in the developed world creates challenges for policymakers, raising the risks of a policy misstep.
As expected the Bank of England (BoE) announced a 25bps rate hike, the first for a decade, and voted unanimously to maintain the stock of purchased assets at current level.
Key takeaways and implications following the 19th Party Congress in China.
In our last Viewpoints, we discussed the long-term structural growth opportunity of technology and internet companies in EM. This month, we delve into the new digital finance age developing in EM, which we believe is driving economic growth, causing disruption across industries, and creating new compelling opportunities for fundamental investors.
Stay connected on the latest market developments and investment themes
Our portfolio managers discuss the new consumer spending paradigm and the impact of ecommerce’s entry into supermarkets.
US Treasury yields and the US dollar fluctuated around renewed focus on tax reform, potential for hawkish central bank leadership and ongoing strength in economic activity data. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept policy unchanged but described the growth outlook as "solid" for the first time since January 2015. We expect a rate hike in December and we are underweight US rates.
This week bought some clarity around US monetary and fiscal policies. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept policy unchanged while firming expectations for a December rate hike by describing growth as "solid" for the first time since 2015. Jerome Powell's nomination to be the next US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair points to continuity as his economic and monetary policy views are broadly in line with current leadership.
Access more insights from across GSAM
Stay informed on timely views and market developments