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In the Spotlight
We believe Millennials are reshaping markets and have the potential to impact businesses across sectors and geographies. Millennials are driving a series of trends that will shape tomorrow’s investment opportunities.
In the Spotlight
In The Spotlight
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Talk to UsIn the US, the S&P 500 notched its 45th all-time high of the year on Friday, closing the week 1.13% higher, as inflation data remained roughly flat from the month prior. Outside of the US, the STOXX 600 and FTSE 100 rose and fell by 0.68% and –0.29%, respectively, despite weak activity data in the Euro area. In China, the Hang Seng index posted its largest decline since 2008 on Tuesday and snapped a two-week streak of gains, falling –6.53% last week. Read More
Oil prices rose last week on the back of further conflict in the Middle East as Israel’s defense minister warned of a potential retaliation against Iran. WTI and Brent crude finished the week higher at $75.56 and $79.04/bbl, respectively, despite the Energy Information Agency reporting an increase in US crude oil inventories, against consensus expectations for a decline. Meanwhile, gold prices posted their fifth consecutive week of gains, ultimately ending at $2699.70/troy oz. Read More
In the US, the 2-Year and 10-Year US Treasury yields rose to 3.94% and 4.07%, respectively, despite an above-consensus increase in initial jobless claims, underscoring economic instability in hurricane-affected regions. Outside of the US, the 10-Year German Bund and 10-Year UK Gilt yields rose to 2.27% and 4.21%, respectively, despite ECB speakers acknowledging that downside growth risks were beginning to materialize. Read More
The US dollar appreciated against a basket of currencies last week, rising by 0.29%, as minutes from the FOMC's September meeting and inflation prints pared investor expectations of additional outsized rate cuts in the near term. Meanwhile, the Chinese Yuan Renminbi strengthened to ¥7.0627 as government officials pledged to accelerate their proposed economic stimulus package in a press conference on Tuesday. Read More
Inflation data for the US was mixed last week, with headline CPI slowing and core CPI rising in September from the month prior. Both prints came in above consensus expectations by 0.1pp. Ultimately, headline CPI printed at 2.4% year-over-year, while core CPI came in at 3.3% year-over-year. The underlying composition of the prints indicated increases in food and beverages, medical care, and clothing costs, while the largest decrease came from energy costs. Meanwhile, headline and core PPI printed below and in line with consensus expectations at 0.0% and 0.2%, respectively. Read More
FOMC meeting minutes indicated majority support across participants for their decision to lower the Fed Funds rate by 50bp at the September meeting. However, participants also stressed that the larger-than-expected rate cut should not be interpreted “as a signal that the pace of policy easing would be more rapid than participants’ assessments” in the recent Summary of Economic Projections, lowering investor expectations for another 50bp cut in November. Our colleagues in GIR continue to expect the FOMC to deliver two more 25bp cuts at its November and December meetings this year. Read More
In the Euro area, retail sales grew by 0.8% year-over-year in August, below consensus expectations of 1.0%. In light of recent weaker activity data and further evidence of easing inflation pressures, GIR expects the ECB to cut rates by 25bp on Thursday this week before moving to sequential cuts until a terminal rate of 2% is reached in June. Read More
Initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly increased to 258k last week, reflecting a 14k increase in hurricane-affected states and boosts from auto layoffs in Michigan. Read More
For US Fixed Income, Government, Corporate, and High Yield refer to the Bloomberg US Treasury, the Bloomberg US Corporate Credit, and the Bloomberg US High Yield indices, respectively. For European Fixed Income, Government, Corporate, and High Yield refer to the Bloomberg Euro Treasury Index, the Bloomberg Euro Corporate Index, and the Bloomberg Euro High Yield Index, respectively. Short, Intermediate, and Long refer to the Short, Intermediate, and Long segments of their respective curves. Quality returns refers to the credit quality of asset classes ranging from Government, highest quality, to High Yield, lowest quality. Since August 24, 2016, the Barclays indices are co-branded “Bloomberg Barclays indices”.
UK Unemployment Rate (Cons: , Prior: 4.1%)
UK CPI YoY (Cons: , Prior: 2.2%)
Euro area CPI YoY (Cons: 1.8%, Prior: 1.8%)
US Core Retail Sales MoM (Cons: 0.3%, Prior 0.1%)
UK Core Retail Sales MoM (Cons: , Prior: 1.1%)
US Housing Starts (Cons: 1.360M, Prior: 1.356M)
“CPI” refers to Consumer Price Index. “YoY” refers to year-over-year. “ECB” refers to European Central Bank. “MoM” refers to month-over-month. “Manuf.” refers to manufacturing. “BoJ” refers to Bank of Japan. “FOMC” refers to Federal Open Market Committee. “BoE” refers to Bank of England.
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