Menu Our services in the selected location:
  • No services available for your region.
Select Location:
Remember my selection
Your browser is out of date.

HEDGE FUNDS: IMPROVED PROSPECTS IN THE POST-MODERN CYCLE?

May 10, 2023  |  6 Minute Read


Timothy P. Ramsey, CFA

Equity Strategist, Public Capital Markets

Timothy P. Ramsey, CFA


The Times They Are A-Changin’

From the 1980s a ‘Modern Cycle’ evolved driven by low inflation and interest rates, independent central banks, globalization, innovation, and generally lower volatility. These tailwinds—in concert with the Federal Reserve’s Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) intended to speed recovery from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)—helped fuel a 16% annualized return for the S&P 500 since its March 2009 low, and an 11% return for a classic 60/40 illustrative portfolio. Both delivered returns well above long-term historical trend in this extraordinary period. Interestingly, the global aggregate hedge fund universe—considering the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index (HFRI) as proxy—well underperformed (see exhibit below), albeit with more muted volatility.1

 

However, we suspect we have now entered a ‘Post-Modern Cycle’ shaped by increased geopolitical risk, a partial pullback from globalization, and higher energy and labor costs. This environment has the potential to result in stickier inflation, a higher-for-longer rate environment, and elevated volatility for risk assets overall. This different set of macro conditions and priorities may imply different opportunities and risks for investors to consider, and the above-average equity and bond returns they have become accustomed to may potentially be challenged.

 

 

Exhibit 1: Hedge Funds, S&P 500, and Classic 60/40 – Annualized Returns from March 2009 GFC Lows

 

Source: Morningstar Direct. As of March 31, 2023. HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index, a global, equal-weighted index of single-manager funds that report to HFR Database. HFR Database © HFR, Inc. 2023,  www.hedgefundresearch.com. Past performance does not predict future returns. Constituent funds report monthly net of all fees performance in US Dollar and have a minimum of $50 Million under management or $10 Million under management and a twelve (12) month track record of active performance. “60/40” = 60% S&P 500 TR USD Index + 40% Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond TR USD Index. The performance results are based on historical performance of the indices used. The result will vary based on market conditions and your allocation. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary.

 

 

Improved Prospects for Hedge Funds in the Post-Modern Cycle

We think a more challenging macroeconomic backdrop bodes well for the relative performance of hedge funds. Since inception in January 1990, the HFRI Index has tended to outperform equities and a more conservative 60/40 illustrative portfolio across high equity volatility regimes (as measured by the VIX Index), elevated inflation periods, and non-ZIRP periods (see exhibits below).

 

 

Exhibit 2: Hedge Fund Regime Analysis – Equity Volatility

Annualized Total Returns During VIX Index Quartiles

 

Source: Monthly Returns from Morningstar Direct, since HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index inception January 1990-March 2023. As of March 2023. VIX Daily Closing Price from Bloomberg. Volatility is measured by standard deviation. The performance results are based on historical performance of the indices used. The result will vary based on market conditions and your allocation. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary.

 

 

Exhibit 3: Hedge Fund Regime Analysis – Inflation Environments

Annualized Total Returns with Inflation < / > 3%

 

Source: Monthly Returns from Morningstar Direct, since HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index inception January 1990-March 2023. As of March 2023. 12-Mo Percent Change in CPI from US BLS. The performance results are based on historical performance of the indices used. The result will vary based on market conditions and your allocation. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary.

 

 

Exhibit 4: Hedge Fund Regime Analysis – Monetary Policy

Annualized Total Returns During Zero Interest Rate Policy Periods and ‘Normal’ Periods

 

Source: Monthly Returns from Morningstar Direct, since HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index inception January 1990-March 2023. As of March 2023. Monthly Effective Fed Funds Rate from St. Louis Fed.  “ZIRP” = Zero Interest Rate Policy, defined as a period when the effective Federal Funds Rate < 50 bps. The performance results are based on historical performance of the indices used. The result will vary based on market conditions and your allocation. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary.

 

 

Diversification in Action

The primary function of a liquid alternative should be to smooth overall portfolio volatility and improve risk-adjusted returns and investor experience, by extension. We believe hedge funds can fill this role. The HFRI Index—with its constituent Equity Long/Short, Macro, Trend-Following, Relative Value, Event Driven strategies—has historically provided a diversifying pattern of returns, particularly during times of equity or fixed income market stress.

 

Since inception of the HFRI, an illustrative 60/40 portfolio with a modest 15% allocation to hedge funds has been more likely to deliver higher risk-adjusted returns relative to a classic 60/40 illustrative portfolio over reasonable investment horizons. This frequent occurrence of outperformance was handicapped by the inclusion of the post-GFC period of benign macro conditions and exuberant returns—outside of 2022 (see exhibit 5).

 

 

Exhibit 5: 60/40 With 15% Hedge Funds: Frequency of Risk-Adjusted Outperformance Versus Classic 60/40

Since HFRI Index Inception (January 1, 1990)

 

Source: Morningstar Direct. As of March 31, 2023. January 1990: January 1, 1990. March 2009: March 1, 2009. The performance results are based on historical performance of the indices used. The result will vary based on market conditions and your allocation. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary.

 

 

The tide may already be turning. Over the last three years—across dramatic market terrain—a 60/40 portfolio that included hedge funds would have delivered modestly better absolute performance (9.9% annualized versus 9.6% for a classic 60/40 portfolio), but with more muted volatility (12.0% annualized versus 13.1%). It captured less downside than the classic portfolio, with a lower maximum drawdown in 2022. We believe the Post-Modern Cycle we foresee has strong potential to reinforce this added value of hedge fund portfolio integration in the long term.

 

 

 

Related Insights

Start the Conversation

Committed to providing you with the insights you need to build your practice.

 

1 Global aggregate hedge fund universe, as represented by the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index, a global, equal-weighted index of single-manager funds that report to HFR Database. Goldman Sachs Asset Management as of March 31, 2023.

Conflicts of Interest

There may be conflicts of interest relating to the Alternative Investment and its service providers, including Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. These activities and interests include potential multiple advisory, transactional and other interests in securities and instruments that may be purchased or sold by the Alternative Investment. These are considerations of which investors should be aware and additional information relating to these conflicts is set forth in the offering materials for the Alternative Investment.

 

Glossary

Standard Deviation is a statistical measure of volatility indicates the “risk” associated with a return series.

The S&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Stock Prices Index of 500 stocks, an unmanaged index of common stock prices.

The Bloomberg US Agg Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market.

The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index is a global, equal-weighted index of single-manager funds that report to HFR Database.

Constituent funds report monthly net of all fees performance in US Dollar and have a minimum of $50 Million under management or $10 Million under management and a twelve (12) month track record of active performance.

“60/40” = 60% S&P 500 TR USD Index + 40% Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond TR USD Index.

“ZIRP” = Zero Interest Rate Policy, defined as a period when the effective Federal Funds Rate < 50 bps.  

 

Risk Considerations and General Disclosures

THIS MATERIAL DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION IN ANY JURISDICTION WHERE OR TO ANY PERSON TO WHOM IT WOULD BE UNAUTHORIZED OR UNLAWFUL TO DO SO.

Diversification does not protect an investor from market risk and does not ensure a profit.

Prospective investors should inform themselves as to any applicable legal requirements and taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile which might be relevant.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. This material is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.

This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. This material has been prepared by Goldman Sachs Asset Management and is not financial research nor a product of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR). It was not prepared in compliance with applicable provisions of law designed to promote the independence of financial analysis and is not subject to a prohibition on trading following the distribution of financial research. The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. This information may not be current and Goldman Sachs Asset Management has no obligation to provide any updates or changes.

The views expressed herein are as of March 31, 2023 and subject to change in the future.   Individual portfolio management teams for Goldman Sachs Asset Management may have views and opinions and/or make investment decisions that, in certain instances, may not always be consistent with the views and opinions expressed herein.

Views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation by Goldman Sachs Asset Management to buy, sell, or hold any security, they should not be construed as investment advice.

Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect a series of assumptions and judgments as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts do not take into account the specific investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. These forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, these forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. These forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these forecasts. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments will fluctuate and can go down as well as up. A loss of principal may occur.

United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, this material is a financial promotion and has been approved by Goldman Sachs Asset Management International, which is authorized and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority.

European Economic Area (EEA): This financial promotion is provided by Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE. This material is a financial promotion disseminated by Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, including through its authorised branches ("GSBE"). GSBE is a credit institution incorporated in Germany and, within the Single Supervisory Mechanism established between those Member States of the European Union whose official currency is the Euro, subject to direct prudential supervision by the European Central Bank and in other respects supervised by German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufischt, BaFin) and Deutsche Bundesbank.

Switzerland: For Qualified Investor use only – Not for distribution to general public. This is marketing material. This document is provided to you by Goldman Sachs Bank AG, Zürich. Any future contractual relationships will be entered into with affiliates of Goldman Sachs Bank AG, which are domiciled outside of Switzerland. We would like to remind you that foreign (Non-Swiss) legal and regulatory systems may not provide the same level of protection in relation to client confidentiality and data protection as offered to you by Swiss law.

Asia excluding Japan: Please note that neither Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“GSAMHK”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (Company Number: 201329851H ) (“GSAMS”) nor any other entities involved in the Goldman Sachs Asset Management business that provide this material and information maintain any licenses, authorizations or registrations in Asia (other than Japan), except that it conducts businesses (subject to applicable local regulations) in and from the following jurisdictions: Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, India and China. This material has been issued for use in or from Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited, in or from Singapore by Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (Company Number: 201329851H) and in or from Malaysia by Goldman Sachs (Malaysia) Sdn Berhad (880767W).

Australia: This material is distributed by Goldman Sachs Asset Management Australia Pty Ltd ABN 41 006 099 681, AFSL 228948 (‘GSAMA’) and is intended for viewing only by wholesale clients for the purposes of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This document may not be distributed to retail clients in Australia (as that term is defined in the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)) or to the general public. This document may not be reproduced or distributed to any person without the prior consent of GSAMA. To the extent that this document contains any statement which may be considered to be financial product advice in Australia under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth), that advice is intended to be given to the intended recipient of this document only, being a wholesale client for the purposes of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). Any advice provided in this document is provided by either of the following entities. They are exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act of Australia and therefore do not hold any Australian Financial Services Licences, and are regulated under their respective laws applicable to their jurisdictions, which differ from Australian laws. Any financial services given to any person by these entities by distributing this document in Australia are provided to such persons pursuant to the respective ASIC Class Orders and ASIC Instrument mentioned below.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management, LP (GSAMLP), Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC (GSCo), pursuant ASIC Class Order 03/1100; regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission under US laws.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management International (GSAMI), Goldman Sachs International (GSI), pursuant to ASIC Class Order 03/1099; regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; GSI is also authorized by the Prudential Regulation Authority, and both entities are under UK laws.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (GSAMS), pursuant to ASIC Class Order 03/1102; regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singaporean laws.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (GSAMHK), pursuant to ASIC Class Order 03/1103 and Goldman Sachs (Asia) LLC (GSALLC), pursuant to ASIC Instrument 04/0250; regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong under Hong Kong laws.

No offer to acquire any interest in a fund or a financial product is being made to you in this document. If the interests or financial products do become available in the future, the offer may be arranged by GSAMA in accordance with section 911A(2)(b) of the Corporations Act. GSAMA holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 228948. Any offer will only be made in circumstances where disclosure is not required under Part 6D.2 of the Corporations Act or a product disclosure statement is not required to be given under Part 7.9 of the Corporations Act (as relevant).

Canada: This presentation has been communicated in Canada by GSAM LP, which is registered as a portfolio manager under securities legislation in all provinces of Canada and as a commodity trading manager under the commodity futures legislation of Ontario and as a derivatives adviser under the derivatives legislation of Quebec. GSAM LP is not registered to provide investment advisory or portfolio management services in respect of exchange-traded futures or options contracts in Manitoba and is not offering to provide such investment advisory or portfolio management services in Manitoba by delivery of this material.

Japan: This material has been issued or approved in Japan for the use of professional investors defined in Article 2 paragraph (31) of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law by Goldman Sachs Asset Management Co., Ltd.

Bahrain: This material has not been reviewed by the Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) and the CBB takes no responsibility for the accuracy of the statements or the information contained herein, or for the performance of the securities or related investment, nor shall the CBB have any liability to any person for damage or loss resulting from reliance on any statement or information contained herein. This material will not be issued, passed to, or made available to the public generally.

Kuwait: This material has not been approved for distribution in the State of Kuwait by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry or the Central Bank of Kuwait or any other relevant Kuwaiti government agency. The distribution of this material is, therefore, restricted in accordance with law no. 31 of 1990 and law no. 7 of 2010, as amended. No private or public offering of securities is being made in the State of Kuwait, and no agreement relating to the sale of any securities will be concluded in the State of Kuwait. No marketing, solicitation or inducement activities are being used to offer or market securities in the State of Kuwait.

Israel: This document has not been, and will not be, registered with or reviewed or approved by the Israel Securities Authority (ISA”). It is not for general circulation in Israel and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Goldman Sachs Asset Management International is not licensed to provide investment advisory or management services in Israel.

Oman: The Capital Market Authority of the Sultanate of Oman (the "CMA") is not liable for the correctness or adequacy of information provided in this document or for identifying whether or not the services contemplated within this document are appropriate investment for a potential investor. The CMA shall also not be liable for any damage or loss resulting from reliance placed on the document.

Qatar: This document has not been, and will not be, registered with or reviewed or approved by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority, the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority or Qatar Central Bank and may not be publicly distributed. It is not for general circulation in the State of Qatar and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose.

Saudi Arabia: The Capital Market Authority does not make any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of this document, and expressly disclaims any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from, or incurred in reliance upon, any part of this document. If you do not understand the contents of this document you should consult an authorised financial adviser.

UAE: This document has not been approved by, or filed with the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates or the Securities and Commodities Authority. If you do not understand the contents of this document, you should consult with a financial advisor.

South Africa: Goldman Sachs Asset Management International is authorised by the Financial Services Board of South Africa as a financial services provider.

Colombia: Esta presentación no tiene el propósito o el efecto de iniciar, directa o indirectamente, la adquisición de un producto a prestación de un servicio por parte de Goldman Sachs Asset Management a residentes colombianos. Los productos y/o servicios de Goldman Sachs Asset Management no podrán ser ofrecidos ni promocionados en Colombia o a residentes Colombianos a menos que dicha oferta y promoción se lleve a cabo en cumplimiento del Decreto 2555 de 2010 y las otras reglas y regulaciones aplicables en materia de promoción de productos y/o servicios financieros y /o del mercado de valores en Colombia o a residentes colombianos. Al recibir esta presentación, y en caso que se decida contactar a Goldman Sachs Asset Management, cada destinatario residente en Colombia reconoce y acepta que ha contactado a Goldman Sachs Asset Management por su propia iniciativa y no como resultado de cualquier promoción o publicidad por parte de Goldman Sachs Asset Management o cualquiera de sus agentes o representantes. Los residentes colombianos reconocen que (1) la recepción de esta presentación no constituye una solicitud de los productos y/o servicios de Goldman Sachs Asset Management, y (2) que no están recibiendo ninguna oferta o promoción directa o indirecta de productos y/o servicios financieros y/o del mercado de valores por parte de Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Esta presentación es estrictamente privada y confidencial, y no podrá ser reproducida o utilizada para cualquier propósito diferente a la evaluación de una inversión potencial en los productos de Goldman Sachs Asset Management o la contratación de sus servicios por parte del destinatario de esta presentación, no podrá ser proporcionada a una persona diferente del destinatario de esta presentación.

This material is a financial promotion disseminated by Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, including through its authorised branches ("GSBE"). GSBE is a credit institution incorporated in Germany and, within the Single Supervisory Mechanism established between those Member States of the European Union whose official currency is the Euro, subject to direct prudential supervision by the European Central Bank and in other respects supervised by German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufischt, BaFin) and Deutsche Bundesbank.

Although certain information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. We have relied upon and assumed without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources.

HFRI and HFRX and related indices are trademarks and service marks of Hedge Fund Research, Inc. ("HFR") which has no affiliation with Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Information regarding HFR indices was obtained from HFR’s website and other public sources and is provided for comparison purposes only. HFR does not endorse or approve any of the statements made herein.

Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends, as applicable, but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest directly in indices.

The indices referenced herein have been selected because they are well known, easily recognized by investors, and reflect those indices that the Investment Manager believes, in part based on industry practice, provide a suitable benchmark against which to evaluate the investment or broader market described herein.

Equity investments are subject to market risk, which means that the value of the securities in which it invests may go up or down in response to the prospects of individual companies, particular sectors and/or general economic conditions. Different investment styles (e.g., “growth” and “value”) tend to shift in and out of favor, and, at times, the strategy may underperform other strategies that invest in similar asset classes. The market capitalization of a company may also involve greater risks (e.g. "small" or "mid" cap companies) than those associated with larger, more established companies and may be subject to more abrupt or erratic price movements, in addition to lower liquidity.

Hedge funds and other private investment funds (collectively, “Alternative Investments”) are subject to less regulation than other types of pooled investment vehicles such as mutual funds. Alternative Investments may impose significant fees, including incentive fees that are based upon a percentage of the realized and unrealized gains and an individual’s net returns may differ significantly from actual returns. Such fees may offset all or a significant portion of such Alternative Investment’s trading profits. Alternative Investments are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information. Investors may have limited rights with respect to their investments, including limited voting rights and participation in the management of such Alternative Investments.

Alternative Investments often engage in leverage and other investment practices that are extremely speculative and involve a high degree of risk. Such practices may increase the volatility of performance and the risk of investment loss, including the loss of the entire amount that is invested. There may be conflicts of interest relating to the Alternative Investment and its service providers, including Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Similarly, interests in an Alternative Investment are highly illiquid and generally are not transferable without the consent of the sponsor, and applicable securities and tax laws will limit transfers.

 

Confidentiality
 No part of this material may, without Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s prior written consent, be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form, by any means, or (ii) distributed to any person that is not an employee, officer, director, or authorized agent of the recipient.

Date of First Use: May 5, 2023. 317154-OTU-1791854/317988-OTU-1798120

 

Please enter your email address to continue reading.

Confirm Your Access


An email has been sent to you to verify ownership of your email address.

Please verify the link in the email by clicking the confirmation button. Once completed, you will gain instant access to our insights.

If you did not receive the email from us please check your spam folder or try again.