Complex markets can be difficult to decipher. We provide investment professionals and their clients with a global perspective to help explain the issues and trends affecting their portfolios.
Many market observers in 2019 believe they have witnessed cyclical warning signs which start the countdown to the next recession, we believe a recession is not a foregone conclusion.
US household debt relative to disposable personal income remains at all-time lows, as shown in the chart. Since the financial crisis in 2008, households have meaningfully deleveraged, with their financial obligation ratio falling over 300bps. Low rates, earnings growth, and a healthy labor market have helped households’ capacity to service debt. In turn, we expect the strong consumer backdrop to continue to support the expansion.
Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, and GSAM.
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