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We see current conditions as largely benign as long as investors understand that risk may no longer be linear. Political shocks and policy-related risks are the variables to watch, whereas we see recession risk as still moderate.
A divided Congress may meaningfully limit the scope for policy changes. In a narrowly divided Senate, marginal votes are needed to attain a simple majority, which would increase the likelihood of more incremental changes in areas such as health care or tax policy.
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