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Contact UsComplex markets can be difficult to decipher. We provide investment professionals and their clients with a global perspective to help explain the issues and trends affecting their portfolios.
S&P 500 Index earnings printed better than feared in 1Q, with both sales and earnings exceeding consensus forecasts. The level of expected profit margins rose in 9 of the 11 sectors, reflecting the first sequential increase in margins in over a year, and is now back at pre-COVID levels. Slowing economic growth remains a downside risk to margins, though we believe resilient revenues and slowing input cost inflation will be supportive of earnings in coming quarters.
Source: Compustat, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
The promising start to 2023 has benefitted from the reduction in acute European energy risk and strong Chinese economic momentum in reopening. Recent data trends have strengthened the global “soft landing” narrative, though good news remains a double-edged sword. Resilient growth may potentially invite additional rate hikes and threaten to elongate the economic adjustment that began last year. Consequently, the evolution of the growth-inflation mix and commensurate monetary responses remain our prevailing risk in 2023.
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