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We see current conditions as largely benign as long as investors understand that risk may no longer be linear. Political shocks and policy-related risks are the variables to watch, whereas we see recession risk as still moderate.
A recent dip below 50 in the US ISM Manufacturing Index has reignited recession fears. While often interpreted as a recessionary signal, we believe its signaling power is limited as 1) prints remain above 45, a level many strategists consider to be more telling, 2) historically a sub-50 reading preceded a recession less than half the time and 3) the economy is less reliant on the manufacturing sector.
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