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FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK
2Q 2024

Navigating Through the Noise

April 16, 2024  |  6 Minute Read


 

 

CIO Perspectives

 

In the dynamic world of investing, discerning signal from noise is key to sound decision-making. The past three years have seen unprecedented uncertainty and volatility due to the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, complicating the interpretation of economic indicators. However, there's a growing sense of normalization in data and market trends. Inflation has been resilient this year, but the fundamental forces of disinflation remain. Stable inflation expectations, along with adjustments in goods, labor, and rental markets, suggest further price stabilization. The US labor market's strength, partly fueled by increased immigration, bodes well for economic growth. We anticipate that central banks, including the Fed, ECB, and BoE, will initiate rate cuts in the coming months. Such policy shifts, combined with robust private sector balance sheets and steady growth, are likely to support fixed income spread sectors like corporate, securitized, and emerging market credit. Yet, the investment landscape is not without its challenges—downside growth risks, potential inflation spikes, and geopolitical uncertainties underscore the importance of active security selection, as well as the defensive role of government bonds and perceived safe-haven currencies like the US dollar. Investing amid today’s new realities requires deep expertise, rigorous analysis, and a steadfast commitment to data-driven decision-making. By filtering out the noise, we aim to navigate investment portfolios toward resilience and capitalize on new opportunities.

 

 

 

“Market sensitivity to economic indicators is heightened, driven by divergent growth and inflation projections. Given the uncertainties around the pace of central bank policy easing and the neutral rate, adopting a dynamic strategy in managing duration is essential.”

Kay Haigh

Global co-head of Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions

Kay Haigh


“The fundamental backdrop suggests a “tighter for longer” spread regime can be sustained, which is conducive to returns driven by carry. Nevertheless, tight benchmark index spreads means it is crucial to proactively identify and capitalize on alpha-generating opportunities within fixed income spread sectors.”

Whitney Watson

Global co-head of Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions

Whitney Watson

Wide Spectrum of Potential Economic and Policy Outcomes

 

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. For illustrative purposes only.

 

 

What We're Watching

 

The economy 

Inflation remains the primary determinant of central bank decisions. Surprises in inflation—stemming from geopolitical disruptions or other factors—might lead to a slower pace or later start to rate cuts, whereas unexpected declines in labor market indicators could hasten the plans for policy normalization. The uncertainties surrounding the speed of the easing cycle and the neutral rate necessitate a dynamic approach to managing duration.

 

 

The Breadth of Price Rises in the US Remains Well Below its Peak

 

Source: Macrobond, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of February 2024. ¹ Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research G10 Inflation Monitor (March 22, 2024).

 

 

(Geo)politics

We acknowledge the profound human suffering caused by the ongoing conflicts, including those in the Middle East and Ukraine and hope for their resolution. While these conflicts have not had a large influence on financial markets, they do contribute to the potential for increased growth volatility and higher commodity prices. Moreover, in this active political year, uncertainties surrounding the US elections prompt us to consider strategies that are designed to mitigate the risks associated with higher currency volatility. For example, employing currency options and considering a short position in the Chinese Yuan (CNH) could act as a precautionary measure against any prospective US protectionist policies. Interest rate differentials and relative macro performance also support overweight dollar exposure versus CNH.

 

Market functioning 

While the normalization from pandemic-related fiscal packages is underway, fiscal deficits and public debt supply in major developed economies are projected to stay elevated. Concurrently, central banks' quantitative tightening will add to the bond supply for private investors to absorb. These factors contribute to the expectation of a steeper yield curve. They also highlight the potential risks for lower quality and less liquid market segments, which could be more vulnerable in scenarios of reduced liquidity, economic slowdowns, or unforeseen shocks.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Risk Consideration

Investments in fixed income securities are subject to the risks associated with debt securities generally, including credit, liquidity, interest rate, prepayment and extension risk. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in the decline in the bond’s price.  The value of securities with variable and floating interest rates are generally less sensitive to interest rate changes than securities with fixed interest rates. Variable and floating rate securities may decline in value if interest rates do not move as expected. Conversely, variable and floating rate securities will not generally rise in value if market interest rates decline. Credit risk is the risk that an issuer will default on payments of interest and principal. Credit risk is higher when investing in high yield bonds, also known as junk bonds. Prepayment risk is the risk that the issuer of a security may pay off principal more quickly than originally anticipated. Extension risk is the risk that the issuer of a security may pay off principal more slowly than originally anticipated. All fixed income investments may be worth less than their original cost upon redemption or maturity.

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Index Benchmarks

Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends, as applicable, but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest directly in indices.

The indices referenced herein have been selected because they are well known, easily recognized by investors, and reflect those indices that the Investment Manager believes, in part based on industry practice, provide a suitable benchmark against which to evaluate the investment or broader market described herein. The exclusion of “failed” or closed hedge funds may mean that each index overstates the performance of hedge funds generally.

Sector Spread Indexes

US Investment Grade Corporates: ICE BofAML US Corporate Index

US High Yield Corporates: ICE BofAML US Corporate High Yield Index

European Investment Grade Corporates: ICE BofAML Euro Corporate Index

European High Yield Corporates: ICE BofAML Euro High Yield Index

ABS: ICE BofAML US Fixed Rate Asset-Backed Securities Index

MBS: ICE BofAML US Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities Index

CMBS: ICE BofAML US Fixed Rate Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities Index

EM External Debt: J.P. Morgan, EMBI Global Diversified Face Constrained Index

Indexes used for total returns:

Bloomberg Global Aggregate Value Unhedged USD

Bloomberg US Aggregate Unhedged USD

Bloomberg Global Aggregate Government-Related Unhedged USD

Bloomberg US Treasury Total Return Unhedged USD

ICE BofAML German Government (Local Currency) EUR

ICE BofAML  UK Gilt (Local Currency) GBP

ICE BofAML Japan Government Index (Local Currency), JPY

J.P. Morgan Cash 3 Month USD

Bloomberg US Corporate Unhedged USD

Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Unhedged USD

Markit iBoxx USD Leveraged Loans Total Return Index

ICE BofAML Euro Corporate EUR

ICE BofAML Euro High Yield EUR

Bloomberg US MBS Unhedged USD

Bloomberg US Agg ABS Unhedged USD

ICE BofAML US Fixed Rate Agency CMBS USD

Bloomberg Municipal Bond Unhedged USD

J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Face Constrained USD

Bloomberg EM Local Currency Government Unhedged USD

J.P. Morgan CEMBI Diversified USD

ICE BofAML Green Bond (Local Currency)

Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments will fluctuate and can go down as well as up. A loss of principal may occur.

Abbreviations: US Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Swiss National Bank (SNB), Central Bank of Sweden (Riksbank), Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) Bank of Canada (BoC), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Quantitative Easing (QE), Quantitative Tightening (QT), Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), Consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), developed markets (DM), emerging markets (EM), Japanese Government Bond (JGB).

Date of First Use: April 16, 2024  365393-OTU-2005793