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SPRING INTO HIGHER YIELDS

May 27, 2024  |  2 Minute Read 


 

Dovish predictions around Fed cuts to start the year were quickly followed by stronger than expected macro data and higher first quarter municipal supply numbers, which has led to an adjustment of investors expectations and a subsequent market sell-off in recent weeks. The result is a refreshing spring shower of historically attractive muni yields. But approaching summer technicals may just create the perfect storm for a movement lower in yields.

 

Higher and Higher

While Opening Day has just recently passed, the current rate cycle may be approaching its final innings, and thus the case for getting invested in the near-term is strong. High levels of new issue supply have remained persistent; total supply in the muni market is up 25% year-over-year. When combined with broader selling in late-March and early-April to service tax liabilities, the yield environment has become substantially more attractive since the end of 2023. The 10yr AAA has shifted roughly 45bps higher since the beginning of January, providing an improved entry point for investors.

 

 

Market Yields Relative to History

 

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Bloomberg. As of April 17, 2024.

 

Get While the Getting’s Good

Such an entry point from an absolute yield perspective may be fleeting in nature, and while municipals are currently rich relative to treasuries, there are very few imminent catalysts to alleviate conditions. The volume of munis maturing in the summer months of 2024 is likely to exceed the 10-year average. This seasonal imbalance of supply and demand may very well grind both yields and ratios tighter right ahead of the first expected fed rate cuts. In addition, if higher taxes are on the horizon, it would increase the value of tax exemption, which may also bolster demand for munis, and potentially establish a new normal in terms of ratios, fundamentally changing what is considered ‘cheap.’

 

 

Year-to-date Adjustments

 

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Bloomberg.

 

 

Cautiously Optimistic

Rate markets remain volatile, so a few risk factors are presently top of mind. As the year has progressed, markets have priced in fewer and fewer rate cuts. While six cuts were expected in the beginning of January, sticky inflation and strong economic data have pushed back this timeline with the second full cut now not priced in until the Fed’s meeting next January. Should elevated inflation continue to be stubborn, the Fed will be in no rush to cut barring an economic downturn, meaning rates are apt to stay ‘higher-for-longer’. Lastly, within municipals, higher supply volumes may cause ratios to move higher; however, that scenario is not our base case.

 

Recent Municipal/Treasury Ratios

 

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Bloomberg.

 

With seasonal factors providing elevated yields for investors, now is an attractive time to step into fixed income and extend duration on existing portfolios ahead of shifting supply and demand dynamics and the potential of a cutting Fed.

 

 

 

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Glossary

Bps or basis point, a basis point is 1/100th of a percent

Municipal/Treasury ratio is a comparison of the current yield of Municipal bond to US treasuries. It aims to measure whether or not Municipal bonds are an attractive investment in comparison.

Index Benchmarks

Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends, as applicable, but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest directly in indices.

References to indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only and do not imply that the portfolio will achieve similar results. The index composition may not reflect the manner in which a portfolio is constructed. While an adviser seeks to design a portfolio which reflects appropriate risk and return features, portfolio characteristics may deviate from those of the benchmark.

The indices referenced herein have been selected because they are well known, easily recognized by investors, and reflect those indices that the Investment Manager believes, in part based on industry practice, provide a suitable benchmark against which to evaluate the investment or broader market described herein.

Portfolios and benchmarks are not rated by an independent ratings agency. Goldman Sachs Asset Management may receive credit quality ratings on the underlying securities of portfolios and their respective benchmarks from the three major rating agencies: Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch. Goldman Sachs Asset Management calculates the credit quality breakdown and overall rating for both portfolios and their respective benchmarks according to the client’s preferred method or such other method as selected by Goldman Sachs Asset Management in its sole discretion. The applicable method may differ from the method independently used by benchmark providers. Securities that are not rated by all three agencies are reflected as such in the breakdown. For illustrative purposes, Goldman Sachs Asset Management converts all ratings to the equivalent S&P major rating category when reporting the credit rating breakdown. Ratings and portfolio credit quality may change over time. Unrated securities do not necessarily indicate low quality, and for such securities the investment adviser will evaluate the credit quality.

Municipal 3yr: Bloomberg Municipal 3 Year Index

The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index is a rules-based, market-value- weighted index engineered for the long-term tax-exempt bond market. To be included in the index, bonds must be rated investment-grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by at least two of the following ratings agencies: Moody's, S&P, Fitch. If only two of the three agencies rate the security, the lower rating is used to determine index eligibility. If only one of the three agencies rates a security, the rating must be investment-grade. They must have an outstanding par value of at least $7 million and be issued as part of a transaction of at least $75 million. The bonds must be fixed rate, have a dated-date after December 31, 1990, and must be at least one year from their maturity date. Remarketed issues, taxable Municipal bonds, bonds with floating rates, and derivatives, are excluded from the benchmark. This index is the 3 Year (2-4) component of the Municipal Bond index.

Municipal 1-10yr Blend: Bloomberg Municipal 1-10 Yr Blend Index

The Bloomberg Municipal Bond 1-10 Year Blend Index is a market value- weighted index which covers the short and intermediate components of the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index, an unmanaged, market value- weighted index which covers the U.S. investment-grade tax-exempt bond market. The Bloomberg Municipal Bond 1-10 Year Blend Index tracks tax-exempt Municipal General Obligation, Revenue, Insured, and Prerefunded bonds with a minimum $5 million par amount outstanding, issued as part of a transaction of at least $50 million, and with a remaining maturity from 1 up to (but not including) 12 years. The index includes reinvestment of income.

Municipal Aggregate: Bloomberg Aggregate Municipal

The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index is a rules-based, market-value- weighted index Index engineered for the long-term tax-exempt bond market. To be included in the index, bonds must be rated investment- grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by at least two of the following ratings agencies: Moody's, S&P, Fitch. If only two of the three agencies rate the security, the lower rating is used to determine index eligibility. If only one of the three agencies rates a security, the rating must be investment- grade. They must have an outstanding par value of at least $7 million and be issued as part of a transaction of at least $75 million. The bonds must be fixed rate, have a dated-date after December 31, 1990, and must be  at least one year from their maturity date. Remarketed issues, taxable Municipal bonds, bonds with floating rates, and derivatives, are excluded from the benchmark.

Municipal High Yield: Bloomberg High Yield Municipal Index

The Bloomberg Municipal High Yield Bond Index is an unmanaged index made up of bonds that are non-investment grade, unrated, or rated below Ba1 by Moody's Investors Service with a remaining maturity of at least one year. The Index figures do not include any deduction for fees, expenses or taxes. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index.

Risk Considerations

Income from Municipal securities is generally free from federal taxes and state taxes for residents of the issuing state. While the interest income is tax-free, capital gains, if any will be subject to taxes. Income for some investors may be subject to the federal Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the bond market is subject to certain risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit and inflation risk.

Municipal securities are subject to credit/default risk and interest rate risk and may be more sensitive to adverse economic, business, political, environmental, or other developments if it invests a substantial portion of its assets in the bonds of similar projects or in particular types of municipal securities. While interest earned on municipal securities is generally not subject to federal tax, any interest earned on taxable municipal securities is fully taxable at the federal level and may be subject to tax at the state level.

When interest rates increase, fixed income securities will generally decline in value. Fluctuations in interest rates may also affect the yield and liquidity of fixed income securities.

 

High-yield, lower-rated securities involve greater price volatility and present greater credit risks than higher-rated fixed income securities.

 

General Fixed Income Disclosure

Investments in fixed income securities are subject to the risks associated with debt securities generally, including credit, liquidity, interest rate, prepayment and extension risk. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in the decline in the bond’s price.  The value of securities with variable and floating interest rates are generally less sensitive to interest rate changes than securities with fixed interest rates. Variable and  floating rate securities may decline in value if interest rates do not move as expected. Conversely, variable and floating rate securities will not generally rise in value if market interest rates decline. Credit risk is the risk that an issuer will default on payments of interest and principal. Credit risk is higher when investing in high yield bonds, also known as junk bonds. Prepayment risk is the risk that the issuer of a security may pay  off principal more quickly than originally anticipated. Extension risk is the risk that the issuer of a security may pay off principal more slowly than originally anticipated. All fixed income investments may be worth less  than their original cost upon redemption or maturity.

 

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Date of First Use: 4/24/24. 372170-OTU-2034115